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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85d | skyw | July 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$12 +1.1% | 4 |
| 105d | Trustinghorse | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,924 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | Inchoroi | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 119d |  Warren-Buffett | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,958 | +$42 +1.4% | 4 |
| 132d |  CaptainCoinflip | June 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | +$39 +2.7% | 4 |
| 138d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | May 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,525 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for July 31 means the market gives it about 0%.