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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −76 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d | mianbaoxiaoziuma | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,934 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 13d | Musk5 | Lula participates in debate before first round? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,044 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 14d | thoodr2 fills | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,828 | +$43 +0.5% | 4 |
| 17d | Addarash2 fills | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,822 | +$408 +14% | 5 |
| 46d |  disputequant | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,172 | −$1,172 −100% | 4 |
| 49d |  RVGym | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BuyYes48¢ → 0¢ | $1,025 | −$1,025 −100% | 4 |
| 51d | burityps | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,417 | −$1,417 −100% | 4 |
RVGym6,235 sharesdisputequant2,900 shares
alexsandre229 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) participates in a televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 3, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Lula must speak at least once in a debate with at least one other registered Brazilian presidential candidate present, televised live. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.