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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 100% | — | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 100% | +1 pts | +75 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 29 | 100% | +2 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 9 | 100% | +2 pts | +97 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 22 | 100% | +3 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 28 | 100% | +1 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 18 | 100% | +3 pts | +70 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 14 | 100% | +2 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 16 | 100% | +2 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 25 | 100% | +2 pts | +72 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 15 | 100% | +3 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 23 | 100% | +2 pts | +52 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 27 | 100% | +2 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 26 | 100% | +1 pts | +42 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 13 | 100% | +1 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 24 | 100% | +2 pts | +41 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 12 | 100% | +1 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 21 | 100% | +2 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 20 | 100% | +2 pts | +59 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 19 | 100% | +1 pts | +41 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 11 | 100% | +3 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 10 | 100% | +1 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 6 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 8 | 0% | −9 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 3 | 0% | 0 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 4 | 0% | −1 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 7 | 0% | −18 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 184d | Trustinghorse2 fills | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $21,508 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 184d | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $17,496 | −$18 −0.1% | — | |
| 184d | Knobby-Boat | April 17 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 184d | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 184d | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,975 | −$25 −0.1% | — | |
| 185d | Ordon | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,991 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | CrazyArab | April 17 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,083 | −$1,083 −100% | 21 |
| 187d | poorsob3 fills | April 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,662,692 | +$1,664 +0.1% | 20 |
| 187d | April 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,485 | −$15 −0.2% | — | |
| 187d | April 17 | BuyNo<1¢ | $4,693 | −$4,693 −100% | 32 | |
| 187d | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $52,190 | −$52 −0.1% | — | |
| 187d | poorsob | April 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $959,416 | −$960 −0.1% | — |
| 187d | 033033033 | April 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,422 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 187d | April 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,850 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,313 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 23 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,111 | +$38 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,537 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,560 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,651 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,795 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,038 | +$98 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 187d | HODLOR-755 | April 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,201 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 187d | April 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,840 | +$48 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,140 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 16 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,832 | +$65 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $27,895 | +$62 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $53,292 | +$336 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,194 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $24,529 | +$135 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 187d | loser124 | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,247 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 187d | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $87,526 | +$467 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 187d | Sloppydo | April 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,820 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 187d | April 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,002 | +$132 +0.7% | 20 | |
| 187d | dube | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,404 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 187d | April 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,505 | +$63 +0.7% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,228 | +$33 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,167 | +$38 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,450 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,966 | +$44 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,815 | +$62 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,632 | +$83 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,895 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,360 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,711 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,425 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,028 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,983 | +$57 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,554 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,375 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 187d | dube | April 11 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,196 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 187d | dube | April 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,661 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 187d | dube | April 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,138 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 187d | oidoioi | April 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,212 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 187d | April 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,979 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,000 | +$121 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 187d | idkwhatimdoinggg | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,951 | −$49 −1.0% | — |
| 187d | April 30 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,299 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 187d | April 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,253 | +$22 +1.0% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 17 means the market gives it about 100%.