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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 24 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53d | Bet1nthedark3 fills | August 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,900 | +$25 +0.4% | 4 |
| 54d | onthewave | August 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 56d | agagyu | August 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,903 | −$14 −0.2% | — |
| 59d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | August 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,180 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 59d | trampec3 fills | August 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,157 | +$116 +0.8% | 4 |
| 59d | SleeperHunter6 fills | August 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $20,589 | +$613 +3.0% | 4 |
| 59d |  Forch | August 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,016 | +$49 +1.2% | 4 |
| 60d | Romkos73 fills | August 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $12,692 | +$540 +4.3% | 4 |
| 75d | onthewave2 fills | August 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,672 | +$171 +6.4% | 4 |
| 77d | agagyu | August 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,846 | +$160 +8.7% | 4 |
| 77d | SleeperHunter | July 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,655 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 80d | Romkos7 | July 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,956 | +$44 +0.6% | 4 |
| 80d | Needy-Retirement | August 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$87 −8.6% | — |
| 81d |  Parz1vaI | August 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | −$76 −7.4% | — |
| 82d | Parz1vaI | August 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,966 | +$228 +12% | 4 |
| 84d | JoeBlack012 fills | July 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,278 | +$243 +5.7% | 4 |
| 84d |  Outsmarter | July 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,098 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | blunderbot | July 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,201 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 85d | Parz1vaI4 fills | July 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $9,966 | +$940 +9.4% | 4 |
| 85d |  Vasiqwe | July 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 85d | Madsolbro | July 24 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | −$41 −3.0% | — |
| 87d | Parz1vaI | July 24 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,378 | +$44 +3.2% | 5 |
| 87d | forinnerpsandr1x11222 | July 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | +$147 +14% | 4 |
| 89d | 1nvoker1 | July 24 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | +$118 +8.4% | 5 |
| 89d | nonkenny90 | July 24 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$41 +3.6% | 4 |
| 91d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | July 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,568 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | Parz1vaI | July 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,126 | +$85 +0.4% | 4 |
| 92d | OraculumNobius2 fills | July 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,271 | +$11 +0.5% | 4 |
| 92d | Kolobok | July 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,174 | +$6 +0.5% | 4 |
Zcngwill1 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Fedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada. A temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada. A public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify. Whether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for August 31 means the market gives it about 0%.