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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syria | 100% | +86 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Yemen | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Cuba | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Venezuela | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Somalia | 0% | −55 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Iraq | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Iran | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Nigeria | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Other | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| None before 2027 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Mexico | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Colombia | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 279d |  takemymoney2 fills | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,588 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d |  Mr-Krabs2 fills | Syria | SellYes>99¢ | $2,671 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | Ordon2 fills | Yemen | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | RareMonk | Syria | SellYes>99¢ | $1,205 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | Poory | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,944 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | RareMonk | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,205 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d |  JaidenAnimations2 fills | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,178 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d | takemymoney | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  OraculumNobius | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d |  MONARCA-DE-LOS-MARES2 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,479 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  TruongMyLan | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | OraculumNobius4 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,055 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d | SZ777 | Syria | SellYes>99¢ | $1,747 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 279d |  Car2 fills | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,152 | +$30 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  beenraping3 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,978 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d | Laurenman2 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,208 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  Stairs. | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,523 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  duderr | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,130 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d |  zb82 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,682 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d | wokerjoesleeper | Iran | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | +$37 +2.9% | 20 |
| 279d | wokerjoesleeper | Somalia | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,116 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | influenz.eth2 fills | Somalia | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,469 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,659 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,890 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d |  manekineko | Syria | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,015 | +$24 +0.8% | 20 |
| 279d |  BustedCungly | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,570 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | Somalia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,154 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | rated | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | ScottyNooo4 fills | Syria | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,460 | +$46 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d | 0x030e…549a | Syria | SellYes100¢ | $1,444 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 279d |  .yumeko2 fills | Somalia | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,947 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | Shocked-Prospect | Syria | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 279d | .yumeko | Somalia | SellNo>99¢ | $1,415 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | raymondmontana | Syria | SellYes>99¢ | $5,687 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 279d | Car | Somalia | SellNo>99¢ | $4,310 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | ScottyNooo | Cuba | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,718 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | ScottyNooo | Somalia | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,833 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | cigarettes | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,557 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d | cigarettes | Somalia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,558 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | aviato | Syria | SellYes100¢ | $1,431 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 279d | Car3 fills | Somalia | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,820 | +$110 +1.0% | 20 |
| 279d | Car4 fills | Syria | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,368 | +$140 +1.1% | 20 |
| 279d | flow-trader-at-optiver5 fills | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,277 | +$29 +0.4% | 20 |
| 279d | flow-trader-at-optiver4 fills | Iran | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,932 | +$209 +3.0% | 20 |
| 279d | flow-trader-at-optiver5 fills | Colombia | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,287 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d | flow-trader-at-optiver5 fills | Mexico | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,229 | +$78 +0.9% | 20 |
| 279d | flow-trader-at-optiver5 fills | Cuba | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,269 | +$37 +0.5% | 20 |
| 279d | flow-trader-at-optiver5 fills | Iraq | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,291 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  invers2 fills | Syria | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,080 | +$179 +4.4% | 20 |
| 279d | aviato | Syria | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | +$51 +3.7% | 20 |
| 279d | Politricks | Syria | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | +$13 +0.9% | 20 |
| 279d | 0x4e25…d7a73 fills | Somalia | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,132 | +$157 +1.6% | 20 |
| 279d | yougotme2 fills | Syria | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,840 | +$188 +3.9% | 20 |
| 279d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yemen | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,579 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | yougotme | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,635 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | 0x4e25…d7a72 fills | Cuba | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,308 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d | yougotme | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,980 | +$87 +1.1% | 20 |
| 279d |  enesaurus | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$18 +1.3% | 20 |
| 279d | DawnOfYemen | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | Venezuela | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,206 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. Statements within this time period from Trump claiming a qualifying strike will qualify, regardless of whether officially confirmed by the U.S. government.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Syria means the market gives it about 100%.