Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13 | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 15 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 14 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying Google Gemini model must be named “Flash” and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for August 13 means the market gives it about 100%.