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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 33% | — | +21 pts | 1¢ · 65¢ (64¢) | — | in 15d |
| December 31 | 48% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 31¢ · 64¢ (33¢) | — | in 76d |
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PMTraderAdam51 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 33¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 33%.