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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3 | 100% | +61 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −3 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +11 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 4 | 100% | +39 pts | +24 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | +4 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 2 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 5 | 100% | +35 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 26 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 470d | maadscientist | July 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,364 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 470d | Happiness... | July 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,197 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 470d | Fudfarm | July 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,320 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 470d | Predictandbreathe | July 4 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,094 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 470d |  Naichli | August 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,349 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 470d |  Parthenope | July 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,114 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 470d | BridgeLake | July 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,025 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 471d | 11122 | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,067 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d |  beigesun | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d | pantomime | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 471d | chocolate123 | July 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,257 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d | pantomime2 fills | July 3 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,647 | +$66 +0.9% | 4 |
| 471d |  Funfzig9 fills | July 3 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $71,275 | +$2,078 +2.9% | 5 |
| 471d |  prescient | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,921 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 471d |  Rasalgethi | July 3 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 471d | petrovic1914 | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,563 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 471d | Funfzig | July 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,073 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 471d | BobbyB | July 3 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,486 | +$38 +1.5% | 5 |
| 471d | VorpalQuark | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,823 | +$104 +1.5% | 4 |
| 471d |  MEPP2 fills | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,560 | −$52 −1.1% | — |
| 471d | Drowerz | July 5 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,244 | −$81 −3.6% | — |
| 471d | Drowerz | July 3 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,595 | −$310 −8.6% | — |
| 471d | Logan. | July 3 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,375 | −$125 −5.3% | — |
| 471d |  Kickstand7 | July 3 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,234 | +$218 +4.2% | 5 |
| 471d |  ChironCrossing | July 3 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $9,500 | +$500 +5.3% | 5 |
| 471d | Dretard | July 4 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | −$30 −2.0% | — |
| 471d | Funfzig | July 4 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | +$92 +6.5% | 6 |
| 471d |  arjennnnn2 fills | July 4 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,388 | +$190 +5.6% | 5 |
| 471d | Masturbator | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,371 | +$54 +1.6% | 4 |
| 471d | Predictandbreathe | July 3 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | −$155 −11% | — |
| 471d | arjennnnn | August 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$31 +2.0% | 4 |
| 471d |  Strider-1 | July 3 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,361 | −$292 −12% | — |
| 471d | aff3 | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$27 +2.3% | 4 |
| 471d | aff3 | August 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,669 | +$42 +2.5% | 4 |
| 471d | aff3 | July 5 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,491 | +$491 +7.6% | 5 |
| 471d | Drowerz | July 3 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,647 | +$747 +28% | 10 |
| 471d | unwillingly-public | July 3 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$318 +32% | 10 |
| 471d | nndmg3 fills | July 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,189 | +$179 +4.3% | 4 |
| 471d |  khatai | July 5 | BuyNo8¢ → 0¢ | $1,202 | −$1,202 −100% | 10 |
| 471d | Strider-1 | July 3 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | +$689 +52% | 12 |
| 471d | Bink_7 | July 5 | BuyNo35¢ → 0¢ | $2,126 | −$2,126 −100% | 11 |
| 471d | Bink_7 | July 4 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | −$865 −68% | — |
| 471d | abcefg | July 2 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,544 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 471d | pkz | July 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,675 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d | DDW | July 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,036 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 471d |  BFBB | July 2 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,214 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 |
| 471d | BFBB | July 3 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | −$456 −41% | — |
| 471d | GeoPolArb | July 2 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | −$22 −1.8% | — |
| 471d |  DirkDiggler67 | July 3 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$524 +52% | 9 |
| 471d | nndmg2 fills | July 2 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,326 | +$126 +5.4% | 5 |
| 471d | Naichli | August 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,686 | +$92 +3.4% | 4 |
| 471d | maadscientist | July 2 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$57 +5.2% | 5 |
| 471d |  lolbertarian | July 2 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$92 +6.8% | 5 |
| 472d | FunGuy | July 2 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$48 +4.2% | 5 |
| 472d | wilhelmm | July 2 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,477 | +$78 +5.3% | 5 |
| 472d | abcefg | July 2 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | +$77 +5.3% | 5 |
| 472d | Drowerz | July 4 | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,436 | −$1,334 −93% | — |
| 472d |  ChunkyMonky | July 4 | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $1,242 | −$1,242 −100% | 9 |
| 472d | LilOleg | July 3 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $3,995 | −$3,995 −100% | 7 |
| 472d | nonkenny905 fills | August 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $13,928 | +$509 +3.7% | 4 |
This is a market on the passage of the reconciliation bill by a specific legislative body.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 3 means the market gives it about 100%.