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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113d | Ryan13653 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $8,502 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 114d | 033033033 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,627 | +$42 +0.1% | 2 |
| 124d | Julu | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 2 |
| 139d | Rundown-Schoolhouse | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $1,059 | +$44 +4.2% | 2 |
| 140d | 0xef45…c5838 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $40,068 | −$2,635 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0xef45…c58310 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $50,085 | +$3,294 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x3018…8b606 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $33,114 | −$2,178 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0x3018…8b606 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $33,114 | +$2,178 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x09a9…b3e54 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $15,699 | −$1,032 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0x09a9…b3e54 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $15,699 | +$1,032 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x4b21…a6fc3 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $18,092 | −$1,190 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0x4b21…a6fc3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $18,092 | +$1,190 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x06d5…5d1e7 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $35,169 | −$2,313 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0x06d5…5d1e8 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $40,193 | +$2,643 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x3491…a3084 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $24,522 | −$1,613 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0x3491…a3086 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $36,792 | +$2,419 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0xa72f…a2685 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $19,900 | −$1,309 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0xa72f…a2685 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $19,900 | +$1,309 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x8804…3fc76 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $34,445 | +$2,265 +6.6% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x8804…3fc75 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $31,165 | −$2,049 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0xbc08…94a32 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $11,038 | −$726 −6.6% | — |
| 140d | 0xbc08…94a33 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $16,617 | +$1,029 +6.2% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x8db5…d6692 fills | December 31 | SellNo93¢ → 98¢ | $10,092 | −$548 −5.4% | — |
| 140d | 0x8db5…d6693 fills | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 98¢ | $15,139 | +$822 +5.4% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x1410…e8796 fills | December 31 | SellNo93¢ → 98¢ | $35,441 | −$1,925 −5.4% | — |
| 140d | 0x1410…e8798 fills | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 98¢ | $47,274 | +$2,567 +5.4% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x8f63…f1106 fills | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 98¢ | $36,270 | +$1,969 +5.4% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x8f63…f1104 fills | December 31 | SellNo93¢ → 98¢ | $24,180 | −$1,313 −5.4% | — |
| 140d | 0xcd19…e07e6 fills | December 31 | SellNo93¢ → 98¢ | $29,139 | −$1,582 −5.4% | — |
| 140d | 0xcd19…e07e6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 98¢ | $29,139 | +$1,582 +5.4% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x74b8…6b5f | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,812 | +$76 +1.1% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x4afa…03432 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,340 | −$104 −1.0% | — |
| 140d | 0x4afa…0343 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,170 | +$52 +1.0% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x5463…4e2d2 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,320 | +$124 +1.0% | 2 |
| 140d | 0x5463…4e2d2 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,320 | −$124 −1.0% | — |
| 140d | 0x966f…d0874 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,582 | −$178 −1.0% | — |
| 140d | 0x966f…d0877 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $40,638 | +$410 +1.0% | 2 |
| 140d | 0xd3cd…4da34 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,473 | +$191 +1.0% | 2 |
| 140d | 0xd3cd…4da33 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,853 | −$145 −1.0% | — |
| 140d | 0x987e…cd6f4 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $21,422 | −$151 −0.7% | — |
| 140d | 0x987e…cd6f4 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,104 | +$156 +0.7% | 2 |
| 141d | fdsdfs445 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,518 | −$66 −1.0% | — |
| 141d | fdsdfs4452 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,981 | +$131 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x5be0…4be64 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $33,308 | +$336 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x5be0…4be63 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $24,981 | −$252 −1.0% | — |
| 141d | 0x7d40…5fe4 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,445 | −$65 −1.0% | — |
| 141d | 0x7d40…5fe45 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $32,219 | +$325 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x1d77…39f43 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,478 | −$207 −1.0% | — |
| 141d | 0x1d77…39f47 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $47,782 | +$483 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x830a…28195 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $35,269 | +$356 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x830a…2819 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,054 | −$71 −1.0% | — |
| 141d | 0xf48c…2b60 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,486 | −$76 −1.0% | — |
| 141d | 0xf48c…2b603 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,459 | +$227 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0xd6e2…47a76 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $39,067 | +$395 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0xd8cc…862e5 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $38,719 | +$391 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x9de9…22832 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,860 | +$140 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x89bd…00c43 fills | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,358 | +$196 +1.0% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x89bd…00c4 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,453 | −$65 −1.0% | — |
| 169d | Ryan1365 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$35 +1.7% | 2 |
| 174d | ZIONISTSAREGHEY | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,674 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
gjj7tbmkk763ggg1,402 sharesThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 2%.