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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 100% | +61 pts | +46 pts | 98¢ · >99¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 100% | −2 pts | +20 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | −5 pts | −4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 24 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 26 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 25 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 22 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 1 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 27 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416d |  UwO | Successful splash down? | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,662 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 416d | isw2 fills | Successful splash down? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,571 | +$57 +1.6% | 4 |
| 416d | Pointed-Windage | Successful splash down? | BuyNo33¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 5 |
| 416d | Proficient123 | Successful splash down? | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$88 +8.7% | 4 |
| 416d | 0xac8db3b4afea21b73ffdc92fjk | Successful splash down? | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,199 | +$801 +67% | 4 |
| 416d |  noreasapa | Successful splash down? | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $4,928 | −$4,928 −100% | 4 |
| 416d | AscendancyLF | Successful splash down? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$255 +24% | 4 |
| 416d |  LadyLuck2 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,943 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 416d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,243 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 416d | noreasapa2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,920 | +$192 +1.4% | 4 |
| 416d | timeone | Successful splash down? | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | +$550 +41% | 4 |
| 416d | iamgone2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,890 | +$117 +0.5% | 4 |
| 416d | noreasapa | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,627 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 417d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc3 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,097 | +$514 +13% | 4 |
| 417d | travellier | August 31 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | +$172 +13% | 20 |
| 417d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | August 25 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,417 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 418d |  Rolocex | August 31 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,617 | +$211 +13% | 20 |
| 418d |  cookiejar | August 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,235 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 418d | AscendancyLF | August 24 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 20 |
| 418d | LadyLuck2 | August 24 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,572 | +$509 +20% | 20 |
| 420d | SweetChariot3 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,404 | +$15 +0.2% | 4 |
| 423d | SweetChariot3 fills | August 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,670 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 427d |  Aurik2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,535 | +$265 +10% | 4 |
| 435d | SweetChariot | August 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 441d | random0092 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $3,321 | +$757 +23% | 4 |
| 449d | SweetChariot | August 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,988 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 461d |  JaidenAnimations | July 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,139 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 475d | avocado42947 | August 15 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$195 +19% | 24 |
| 475d | SweetChariot | July 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,443 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 475d | SweetChariot2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,962 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 499d | Xailor | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellYes43¢ → 100¢ | $13,486 | −$17,877 −133% | — |
| 499d | Junthor | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $18,192 | −$18,192 −100% | 4 |
| 500d | Melvynx | Successful splash down? | SellYes49¢ → 100¢ | $18,367 | −$19,117 −104% | — |
| 500d | Kryven2 | Successful splash down? | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $18,368 | −$18,368 −100% | 5 |
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? means the market gives it about 0%.
