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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 17 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92d |  theta-thunberg | July 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,022 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | tradingbad | July 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,275 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | theta-thunberg | July 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,402 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 112d |  ydxistheking | July 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,889 | +$346 +5.9% | 20 |
| 112d |  Bertapotamous | July 17 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,700 | +$439 +12% | 20 |
| 116d | Newshound | July 17 | BuyYes59¢ → 0¢ | $1,048 | −$1,048 −100% | 20 |
| 116d | theta-thunberg | July 31 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | +$350 +32% | 20 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer formally ceases to be the Prime Minister of the UK by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Keir Starmer must formally cease to hold the position of Prime Minister in accordance with the laws, rules, governing documents, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements (including resignation) of a future departure will not qualify. Any official departure by Keir Starmer will qualify regardless of the means or if a successor has been appointed by that date. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary changes to Keir Starmer’s duties as Prime Minister will not qualify. A suspension or leave qualifies only when Keir Starmer formally ceases to be Prime Minister. Indefinite suspensions will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 31 means the market gives it about 100%.