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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50m+ | 0% | −6 pts | −84 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 35m+ | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 70m+ | 0% | 0 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80m+ | 0% | −1 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90m+ | 0% | −1 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60m+ | 0% | 0 pts | −74 pts | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| 40m+ | 100% | +2 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| 100m+ | 0% | −1 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 43m+ | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 45m+ | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 47m+ | 100% | +6 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 65m+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| 55m+ | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | thoodr | 50m+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,613 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 15d | ageg43oiklbd2 fills | 50m+ | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,735 | +$239 +8.7% | 6 |
| 17d | SentimentalValue | 35m+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$23 +2.2% | 4 |
| 18d |  KimchiCapital | 50m+ | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,277 | −$145 −6.4% | — |
| 18d | KimchiCapital | 40m+ | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | +$1,932 +150% | 6 |
| 18d | shovelingdigging | 35m+ | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | +$224 +16% | 5 |
| 18d | ageg43oiklbd | 90m+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,957 | −$28 −1.4% | — |
| 20d | ageg43oiklbd2 fills | 90m+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,685 | +$41 +1.5% | 4 |
| 20d | ageg43oiklbd | 70m+ | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$71 +7.0% | 4 |
| 21d | KimchiCapital | 70m+ | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,061 | +$213 +20% | 5 |
| 21d | ageg43oiklbd | 80m+ | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$202 +20% | 5 |
"Patient Zero" (Taylor Swift) releases September 25, 2026 as part of "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore." This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Patient Zero"'s cumulative global Spotify streams from its release date (September 25, 2026) through the end of its first week (October 1, 2026) are greater than or equal to the specified amount, as displayed at 12:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify's official charts. If this resolution source is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. Billboard, Luminate) may be used instead. If there is no reliable streaming figure available by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 50m+ means the market gives it about 0%.