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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22 | 100% | +83 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 31 | 100% | +56 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| December 31 | 100% | +9 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 148d |  HorribleWork | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,498 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 148d | lorry3122 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,292 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 148d | mumps2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,365 | +$76 +1.0% | 4 |
| 148d |  DOJ2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,337 | +$104 +4.4% | 4 |
| 148d | lorry3122 | May 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,003 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
| 148d | DOJ | May 22 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,409 | +$410 +12% | 4 |
| 148d | mumps | May 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | +$85 +6.2% | 4 |
OdinRaven80 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for May 22 means the market gives it about 100%.