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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff Reduction | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | 100% | +99 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| New Sanctions | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | 100% | +94 pts | +63 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| AI Export Restrictions Relief | 0% | −6 pts | −23 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| US-China Board of Trade | 100% | +58 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Detained Americans Release | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145d | 0330330336 fills | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo>99¢ | $307,722 | +$314 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d |  Chims | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 146d | Marvelous-Headlight | Tariff Reduction | SellNo>99¢ | $1,409 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 146d | dube | Tariff Reduction | SellNo>99¢ | $1,698 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 146d |  bigshort | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | +$14 +0.9% | 20 |
| 146d | Kurtosis | Tariff Reduction | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | −$15 −1.4% | — |
| 146d |  elbowrivercasino | Tariff Reduction | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,025 | −$37 −1.8% | — |
| 147d | OilWizard | Tariff Reduction | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,570 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 147d | Marvelous-Headlight | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 147d | 0xbF4d2023824 fills | Tariff Reduction | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,744 | −$167 −1.9% | — |
| 147d |  PredictionYogi | AI Export Restrictions Relief | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,023 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 147d | onekey02 | AI Export Restrictions Relief | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,045 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 147d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,178 | +$80 +1.9% | 20 |
| 147d |  yen4u | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,021 | +$43 +2.1% | 20 |
| 147d | Petty-Osprey | Tariff Reduction | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,677 | −$70 −4.2% | — |
| 147d |  AndyFran | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 147d |  The-Joker | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,418 | +$59 +2.5% | 20 |
| 148d |  LevantLeverage | Tariff Reduction | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $1,169 | −$1,169 −100% | 20 |
| 148d |  OraculumNobius | U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 148d | looppau | U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,988 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 148d | Severe-Fiber | U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 148d | ExDeus | U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,400 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 148d | balabalababalabala | U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 148d | qwe258 | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,979 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 148d | NeoOracle | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,492 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 148d | looppau2 fills | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,341 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 148d |  Flat-Waterskiing | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,143 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 148d | lorry31222 fills | Tariff Reduction | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $6,398 | −$6,398 −100% | 20 |
| 148d | SAPolitcsSeer | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,203 | +$53 +2.4% | 20 |
| 148d | RomeoMustLive | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$81 +5.5% | 20 |
| 148d | ScottyNooo | U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$869 +81% | 20 |
| 148d | ScottyNooo | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $4,938 | +$2,644 +54% | 20 |
| 149d | thoodr6 fills | New Sanctions | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,524 | +$113 +0.8% | 20 |
| 150d | 24859234897234 | Tariff Reduction | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | −$72 −6.3% | — |
| 152d |  FortunatelyFestive | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,150 | −$1,150 −100% | 20 |
| 152d | NeoOracle | US-China Board of Trade | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,029 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d |  cy6erpunker | US-China Board of Trade | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | yougotme | US-China Board of Trade | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | +$28 +2.3% | 20 |
| 152d | Flat-Waterskiing | US-China Board of Trade | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$134 +5.6% | 21 |
| 154d | generalVR | AI Export Restrictions Relief | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | +$233 +19% | 21 |
| 154d | thoodr2 fills | Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $3,240 | −$3,240 −100% | 20 |
| 155d | Thanks4TheMoney | Tariff Reduction | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,044 | −$1,044 −100% | 21 |
| 155d | Thanks4TheMoney | Tariff Reduction | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | +$530 +35% | 22 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution. Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Tariff Reduction means the market gives it about 0%.