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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320d |  Ross1212 | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$6 +0.6% | 4 |
| 339d | 0x9e1a…529e | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,099 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 342d |  silkroad | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | +$23 +1.1% | 4 |
| 344d | CrazyBang | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | +$23 +1.6% | 4 |
| 371d | Remote-Aglet | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,195 | +$36 +1.7% | 4 |
| 415d |  classified | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | +$45 +3.4% | 4 |
| 428d |  DEGENKHAN | US defaults on debt in 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,265 | −$75 −3.3% | — |
| 455d |  ittgnito | US defaults on debt in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,217 | −$94 −4.2% | — |
| 458d | Gdub | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$50 +3.7% | 4 |
| 462d | valmier | US defaults on debt in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | −$46 −4.0% | — |
| 464d | valmier | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,938 | +$62 +3.2% | 4 |
| 465d | ittgnito | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,423 | +$78 +3.2% | 4 |
| 485d | Felelony | US defaults on debt in 2025? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | −$65 −4.9% | — |
| 501d |  beigesun | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | +$33 +3.1% | 4 |
| 520d | WallaceWW | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$67 +4.2% | 4 |
| 541d | DEGENKHAN2 fills | US defaults on debt in 2025? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,004 | +$306 +6.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
