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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 7 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 219d |  elmcap2 | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,787 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate2 fills | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $46,670 | +$47 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b045 fills | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $127,872 | −$128 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | poorsob | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,747 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  GollumGekko | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,005 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Silver-Taxi | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,360 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | dube | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $18,003 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  Infringe | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,986 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 221d | texture | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,946 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | stealer | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,497 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 222d |  Burnmoneyuser | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,695 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | Trustinghorse2 fills | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,362 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | rectify | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,517 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d |  Nik-2 fills | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,623 | −$27 −0.3% | — |
| 222d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $27,071 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d |  Debosnys2 fills | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $44,955 | +$45 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d |  UPSTAGE | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,531 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | discombobulated-chicken | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,475 | −$25 −0.4% | — |
| 222d |  Car | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $33,268 | +$65 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | stealer | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,244 | +$21 +0.4% | 20 |
| 222d |  arabsearch | March 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | −$20 −0.8% | — |
| 222d | PainStealer | March 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,396 | −$11 −0.8% | — |
| 222d |  ChoosePoverty | March 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,014 | −$15 −0.8% | — |
| 222d |  4threich | March 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,011 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 222d | johnspicer | March 7 | SellYes100¢ | $1,369 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 222d | dube | March 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 222d |  Chucklehuck | March 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,855 | −$133 −1.4% | — |
| 222d | Cheerful-Nucleotidase | March 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,024 | −$115 −1.0% | — |
| 222d | CatarinaDevon | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,293 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | EdwardGaming | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,157 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 223d |  Not-Sleeping-Anymore | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,543 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 223d |  bamesjond2 fills | March 7 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,346 | −$414 −7.7% | — |
| 223d | Mikelaawrey | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,626 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 223d |  Iax | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,480 | −$17 −0.2% | — |
| 223d | bamesjond3 fills | March 7 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $6,466 | +$951 +15% | 20 |
| 223d | Nik- | March 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,644 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 223d | Vital-Mathematics | March 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,672 | +$53 +3.2% | 20 |
| 223d |  WealthSimple | March 7 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$109 −10% | — |
| 223d |  Rex416 | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,465 | +$30 +2.0% | 20 |
| 223d | Ziiiii3 fills | March 7 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $22,713 | −$26,023 −115% | — |
| 223d | 0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff | March 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$38 +3.2% | 20 |
| 223d | WealthSimple | March 7 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$152 +15% | 20 |
| 223d |  MisTKy | March 7 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,962 | −$653 −33% | — |
| 223d |  The-Joker2 fills | March 7 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,965 | −$504 −17% | — |
| 223d |  flying-wheel | March 7 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,843 | −$157 −8.5% | — |
| 223d |  iForgor | March 7 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$56 +5.3% | 20 |
| 223d | ccc11ttx | March 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,442 | +$58 +4.0% | 20 |
| 223d | Trustinghorse2 fills | March 7 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,022 | +$394 +7.8% | 20 |
| 223d | 4threich | March 7 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | +$137 +11% | 20 |
| 223d | ChoosePoverty | March 7 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,826 | +$203 +11% | 20 |
| 223d | Burnmoneyuser | March 7 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,628 | +$538 +20% | 20 |
| 223d | dolphintour5 fills | March 7 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $12,251 | −$5,036 −41% | — |
| 223d | The-Joker2 fills | March 7 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,482 | +$458 +18% | 20 |
| 223d |  MajidJavadi | March 7 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $11,012 | +$2,868 +26% | 20 |
| 223d | flying-wheel | March 7 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,541 | +$1,213 +79% | 20 |
| 223d | OnChainCassandra | March 7 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$894 +84% | 20 |
| 223d | MajidJavadi2 fills | March 7 | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $2,351 | −$2,351 −100% | 20 |
| 224d | bamesjond | March 7 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,073 | −$1,073 −100% | 20 |
| 224d | Chucklehuck3 fills | March 7 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $6,420 | +$2,297 +36% | 20 |
| 224d | Chucklehuck2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,226 | +$348 +11% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 7 means the market gives it about 100%.