| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 1,137 | 30¢ → 23¢ | $260 | −$80 −24% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 419 | 56¢ → 52¢ | $218 | −$16 −6.9% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,351 | 19¢ → 9¢ | $212 | −$227 −52% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 232 | 75¢ → 65¢ | $151 | −$22 −13% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 666 | 33¢ → 22¢ | $147 | −$75 −34% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 348 | 55¢ → 40¢ | $139 | −$51 −27% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | Yes | 167 | 60¢ → 83¢ | $138 | +$38 +38% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | Yes | 217 | 46¢ → 61¢ | $133 | +$33 +33% |
| SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,450 | 17¢ → 9¢ | $130 | −$118 −48% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 156 | 64¢ → 71¢ | $110 | +$10 +10% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 255 | 47¢ → 36¢ | $90 | −$30 −25% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 303 | 33¢ → 28¢ | $85 | −$15 −15% |
| SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 314 | 56¢ → 25¢ | $78 | −$98 −55% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 274 | 29¢ → 24¢ | $64 | −$16 −20% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 455 | 11¢ → 14¢ | $61 | +$11 +23% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 100 | 51¢ → 56¢ | $57 | +$6 +11% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 588 | 17¢ → 8¢ | $47 | −$53 −53% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 53 | 75¢ → 83¢ | $44 | +$4 +10% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 792 | 8¢ → 6¢ | $44 | −$16 −27% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 71 | 56¢ → 57¢ | $41 | +$1 +2.7% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Ends in 256d | Yes | 41 | 86¢ → 99¢ | $40 | +$5 +15% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 86 | 32¢ → 46¢ | $40 | +$12 +42% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 283 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $40 | −$0 −1.1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 726 | 12¢ → 5¢ | $36 | −$54 −60% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 199 | 37¢ → 18¢ | $36 | −$37 −51% |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 164d | Yes | 90 | 33¢ → 38¢ | $34 | +$4 +14% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 38 | 80¢ → 87¢ | $32 | +$2 +8.1% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 294 | 17¢ → 11¢ | $32 | −$18 −35% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 37 | 81¢ → 65¢ | $24 | −$6 −20% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 138 | 20¢ → 16¢ | $21 | −$7 −24% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 198 | 24¢ → 10¢ | $19 | −$29 −61% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 19 | 88¢ → 93¢ | $18 | +$1 +5.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 36 | 53¢ → 49¢ | $17 | −$2 −8.4% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 100 | 56¢ → 16¢ | $16 | −$41 −72% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 57 | 35¢ → 27¢ | $15 | −$5 −23% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 41 | 41¢ → 37¢ | $15 | −$2 −11% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | Yes | 111 | 9¢ → 12¢ | $13 | +$3 +33% |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 83 | 60¢ → 16¢ | $13 | −$37 −74% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 26¢ → 6¢ | $11 | −$41 −79% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 143 | 7¢ → 8¢ | $11 | +$1 +7.1% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 26 | 19¢ → 34¢ | $9 | +$4 +79% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,275 | 8¢ → 1¢ | $9 | −$93 −91% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 18 | 55¢ → 34¢ | $6 | −$4 −39% |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 537 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $5 | −$5 −52% |
| Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 83 | 1¢ → 4¢ | $4 | +$3 +271% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 20 | 49¢ → 10¢ | $2 | −$8 −80% |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 718 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$6 −85% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 8h | Yes | 179 | 56¢ → 1¢ | $1 | −$99 −99% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Ends in 8h | Yes | 43 | 24¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$10 −96% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 33 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,041 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$210 −100% |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 11 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 279 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$120 −100% |
| Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 185 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 556 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12,400 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,738 −100% |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,423 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$180 −100% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 90 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSettled - ready to redeem | France | 108 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 631 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$187 −100% |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 526 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 77 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 111 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 21 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 88 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 367 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 750 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 308 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$80 −100% |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 627 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$88 −100% |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,429 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 542 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$187 −100% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,413 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$265 −100% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,673 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 657 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 42 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 476 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,850 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$210 −100% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 473 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$61 −100% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 647 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 39 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 187 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceSettled - ready to redeem | Norway | 3,557 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$223 −100% |
| Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,000 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSettled - ready to redeem | Argentina | 395 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12,297 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$373 −100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 569 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| France leading at halftime?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 321 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 205 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 366 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will Iceland win on 2026-10-06?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 54 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| France vs. England: Team to WinSettled - ready to redeem | France | 799 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 78 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
