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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 22 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78d |  Vanquish | July 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,698 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 78d |  OkieDokiePeon | July 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 82d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | July 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 85d | Skinny-Diving2 fills | July 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $5,424 | +$832 +15% | 20 |
| 85d |  MEPP | July 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,960 | −$42 −1.4% | — |
| 90d | Fancy-Icing | July 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,341 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 94d | Regular-Shipping | July 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,167 | −$14 −1.2% | — |
| 95d |  cambridgeisaac | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,138 | −$36 −1.7% | — |
| 98d | ev17102 fills | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,203 | −$132 −1.8% | — |
| 100d | 0xd269…6b9a | July 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$144 +1.4% | 20 |
| 101d | Striped-Crazy2 fills | July 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,333 | +$167 +5.0% | 20 |
| 101d | Vanquish2 fills | July 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,896 | +$287 +2.4% | 20 |
| 102d | Darling-Demand | July 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,462 | +$38 +2.6% | 20 |
| 106d |  zthunderfury | July 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$45 +3.1% | 20 |
| 108d | Sniveling-Passion | July 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$203 +4.1% | 20 |
| 108d |  Saltanas | July 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,910 | −$90 −4.7% | — |
| 108d | onekey022 fills | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,130 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d |  tetrose3 fills | July 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $26,013 | +$4,739 +18% | 20 |
| 109d | agagyu | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,285 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 111d | tianjiyuyunzhilu4 fills | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,016 | +$64 +0.7% | 20 |
| 112d | 881112 | July 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | +$104 +8.7% | 20 |
| 112d | tetrose2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes7¢ → 0¢ | $2,945 | −$2,945 −100% | 28 |
| 113d | Arashi95272 fills | June 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,229 | −$70 −3.1% | — |
| 113d | 0xbF4d202382 | July 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,163 | −$114 −5.3% | — |
| 113d |  Valen9 | July 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,698 | +$89 +5.3% | 20 |
| 113d | Saltanas | July 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 20 |
| 114d | yaghjkl | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 114d | lukny1410 | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,076 | −$17 −0.8% | — |
| 115d |  titoupost | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,302 | −$48 −1.1% | — |
| 115d | ppxtu | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,941 | −$103 −1.2% | — |
| 115d | aaaaaag3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,698 | +$97 +0.9% | 20 |
| 115d | yenky | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,237 | −$27 −1.2% | — |
| 115d | Striped-Crazy2 fills | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,458 | −$42 −1.2% | — |
| 116d | cambridgeisaac | July 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$174 +8.7% | 20 |
| 116d | cambridgeisaac | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 116d | WING0 | July 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,489 | +$564 +8.7% | 20 |
| 116d | WING0 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,489 | −$161 −2.5% | — |
| 116d | browne2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,255 | +$745 +9.0% | 20 |
| 117d | Indelible-Improvement | July 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,436 | −$154 −11% | — |
| 117d |  zb8 | June 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,503 | +$80 +3.2% | 20 |
| 117d | pada2 fills | June 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $13,429 | −$457 −3.4% | — |
| 117d | Polocap | June 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | −$35 −3.3% | — |
| 118d | Tender-Sombrero | June 30 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | −$40 −3.8% | — |
| 118d | browne2 fills | June 30 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,378 | −$199 −3.7% | — |
| 118d | Niseko | July 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,730 | +$270 +9.9% | 20 |
| 118d | Niseko | June 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,914 | +$86 +2.9% | 20 |
| 118d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA960412 fills | June 30 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $22,850 | −$2,858 −13% | — |
| 118d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA960415 fills | June 30 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $32,995 | +$4,851 +15% | 20 |
| 118d |  ScottyNooo8 fills | June 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $140,714 | +$9,370 +6.7% | 20 |
| 119d | Skinny-Class2 fills | July 31 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $5,778 | −$1,622 −28% | — |
| 119d | Sentimental-Timing | June 30 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,092 | −$120 −5.7% | — |
| 119d | Guoboyue | June 30 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,689 | −$161 −6.0% | — |
| 119d | ev1710 | July 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $6,511 | +$824 +13% | 20 |
| 119d | Cultured-Guilt | July 31 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,657 | −$546 −15% | — |
| 120d |  Atlantislq | June 30 | SellYes7¢ → 0¢ | $2,290 | +$2,290 +100% | — |
| 120d | Cultured-Guilt | July 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,720 | +$406 +15% | 20 |
| 120d | tetrose3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $28,969 | +$3,477 +12% | 20 |
| 120d | BetzimSheli | June 30 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | −$140 −8.6% | — |
| 121d | Kevindoto | July 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,563 | +$383 +15% | 20 |
| 121d | hideo3 fills | June 30 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $17,698 | −$2,305 −13% | — |
RememberAmalek89,867 shares
jimmy000127,402 shares
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e0526,485 shares
oliintoon24 shares
UssTrippingHigh12 shares
Winerlos12 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 0%.