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Polymarket · Tech & Science
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 1 | 90% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 90¢ · 91¢ (1¢) | $520 | in 15d |
| October 19–October 25 | 3% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 8d |
| October 26–November 1 | 3% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 15d |
| October 12–October 18 | 1% | — | −4 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 1d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d | qmmar | No release by November 1 | SellNo12¢ → 10¢ | $1,177 | +$224 +19% | — |
| 9d |  rewardbots2 fills | No release by November 1 | BuyNo32¢ → 10¢ | $3,035 | −$2,110 −70% | 44 |
| 12d | dedidanc2 fills | October 19–October 25 | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $4,795 | +$417 +8.7% | 20 |
| 14d |  0xdc3E831cad | No release by November 1 | SellYes78¢ → 90¢ | $1,697 | −$278 −16% | — |
| 15d |  Parz1vaI | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,927 | +$152 +5.2% | 20 |
| 16d | 0xdc3E831cad | No release by November 1 | BuyYes71¢ → 90¢ | $1,544 | +$430 +28% | 40 |
| 16d | mousta | October 12–October 18 | BuyYes24¢ → 1¢ | $1,559 | −$1,501 −96% | 22 |
| 16d | dedidanc | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | +$583 +30% | 22 |
| 16d | dedidanc | October 12–October 18 | SellNo78¢ → 99¢ | $1,924 | −$521 −27% | — |
| 18d | qmmar2 fills | No release by November 1 | BuyNo70¢ → 10¢ | $13,703 | −$11,798 −86% | 40 |
| 26d |  molodoyy | October 12–October 18 | BuyNo50¢ → 99¢ | $1,228 | +$1,185 +96% | 20 |
| 51d | rewardbots | No release by November 1 | BuyYes39¢ → 90¢ | $1,726 | +$2,249 +130% | 41 |
George.Smiley17,205 shares
Contentious-Dinnerdate2,703 shares
GrokEnjoyer777 shares
Valiko.772 sharesmolodoyy741 shares
balthazar6,915 sharesrewardbots1,446 shares
The-Joker687 sharesThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 90¢ for No release by November 1 means the market gives it about 90%.