| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Ends in 74d | No | 14,097 | 24¢ → 84¢ | $11,877 | +$8,432 +245% |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 76d | No | 10,000 | 51¢ → 63¢ | $6,255 | +$1,105 +21% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 76d | Yes | 9,000 | 43¢ → 62¢ | $5,535 | +$1,689 +44% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | Yes | 15,000 | 21¢ → 24¢ | $3,525 | +$383 +12% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | Yes | 15,000 | 9¢ → 17¢ | $2,490 | +$1,113 +81% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 8,497 | 9¢ → 17¢ | $1,444 | +$717 +99% |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Ends in 79d | OpenAI | 14,649 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $1,318 | −$179 −12% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 975 | 35¢ → 90¢ | $880 | +$539 +158% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 7,000 | 36¢ → 13¢ | $875 | −$1,675 −66% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,746 | 45¢ → 18¢ | $674 | −$1,029 −60% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 3,846 | 24¢ → 15¢ | $583 | −$329 −36% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,793 | 44¢ → 33¢ | $583 | −$204 −26% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,990 | 10¢ → 28¢ | $556 | +$351 +171% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,588 | 50¢ → 34¢ | $532 | −$254 −32% |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Ends in 440d | No | 734 | 88¢ → 64¢ | $469 | −$177 −27% |
| Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or below $15 in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 854 | 43¢ → 55¢ | $465 | +$94 +25% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 870 | 23¢ → 49¢ | $426 | +$223 +109% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 509 | 31¢ → 76¢ | $385 | +$228 +145% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 500 | 57¢ → 77¢ | $383 | +$98 +34% |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | No | 2,304 | 27¢ → 16¢ | $357 | −$267 −43% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 451 | 73¢ → 76¢ | $343 | +$14 +4.1% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | Yes | 3,944 | 4¢ → 8¢ | $327 | +$160 +95% |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,750 | 19¢ → 18¢ | $315 | −$23 −6.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 75d | No | 397 | 28¢ → 77¢ | $308 | +$197 +179% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 356 | 20¢ → 73¢ | $259 | +$187 +259% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 629 | 55¢ → 40¢ | $252 | −$95 −27% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,294 | 27¢ → 10¢ | $229 | −$386 −63% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,000 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $220 | −$320 −59% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Ends ended | No | 271 | 27¢ → 76¢ | $205 | +$132 +181% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,186 | 28¢ → 16¢ | $184 | −$146 −44% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | No | 262 | 40¢ → 69¢ | $181 | +$76 +72% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?Ends in 440d | Yes | 2,000 | 6¢ → 8¢ | $160 | +$38 +31% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | Yes | 3,866 | 2¢ → 4¢ | $147 | +$65 +79% |
| Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 166 | 86¢ → 87¢ | $144 | +$2 +1.2% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 291 | 56¢ → 50¢ | $144 | −$20 −12% |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,646 | 4¢ → 6¢ | $104 | +$30 +41% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 137 | 36¢ → 75¢ | $103 | +$54 +110% |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 130 | 73¢ → 75¢ | $97 | +$3 +3.0% |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,399 | 7¢ → 2¢ | $86 | −$235 −73% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 1,000 | 7¢ → 8¢ | $80 | +$10 +14% |
| Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 5,000 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $65 | −$30 −32% |
| Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 398 | 7¢ → 14¢ | $58 | +$30 +106% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 500 | 56¢ → 12¢ | $57 | −$222 −79% |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 110 | 21¢ → 45¢ | $49 | +$27 +116% |
| Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 336 | 9¢ → 9¢ | $29 | −$2 −5.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 80 | 54¢ → 36¢ | $29 | −$15 −35% |
| Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 151 | 13¢ → 19¢ | $28 | +$8 +42% |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 458 | 1¢ → 5¢ | $23 | +$16 +241% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 250 | 45¢ → 9¢ | $21 | −$91 −81% |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 4,014 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $18 | −$71 −80% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be less than $1.25T?Ends in 440d | Yes | 837 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $14 | +$3 +31% |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 22¢ → 7¢ | $13 | −$31 −70% |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 82 | 26¢ → 14¢ | $11 | −$10 −46% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 198 | 7¢ → 6¢ | $11 | −$4 −26% |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | +$1 +180% |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO?Ends in 440d | Yes | 5 | 12¢ → 13¢ | $1 | +$0 +8.3% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 577 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4,219 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$290 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,325 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$43 −100% |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,553 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$678 −100% |
| Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,500 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,767 −100% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,000 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$240 −100% |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 6, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,077 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$277 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5,049 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$279 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 219 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's US Open?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10,000 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$468 −100% |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 623 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$238 −100% |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,000 | 54¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,080 −100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 970 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 431 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$39 −100% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 455 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$36 −100% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10,000 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$307 −100% |
| Will "Sorry" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 200 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5,000 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$108 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 832 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$509 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5,697 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$792 −100% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,000 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$612 −100% |
| Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,041 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,103 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 7, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 415 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 292 | 77¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$225 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$130 −100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 750 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$300 −100% |
| Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,061 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$181 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15,000 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,113 −100% |
| Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,389 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,451 −100% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,500 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$120 −100% |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40,000 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$660 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6,000 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$550 −100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10,000 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,258 −100% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,170 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$329 −100% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,783 | 48¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4,190 −100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$90 −100% |
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$80 −100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,000 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$350 −100% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,127 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$396 −100% |
| Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,488 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$102 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 250 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,991 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$49 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 26,910 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,735 −100% |
