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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | 100% | +3 pts | +70 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31, 2026 | 100% | +1 pts | +31 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| August 31, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 15, 2026 | 100% | +4 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 21, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 14, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 7, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31, 2025 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31, 2026 | 100% | 0 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 15d |
| November 30, 2026 | 100% | 0 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 45d |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42d | Hajimidingdongji | September 30, 2026 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,430 | −$27 −0.5% | — |
| 42d | Unfinished-July | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,073 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,502 | +$273 +3.6% | 20 |
| 42d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | October 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,105 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d |  The-Joker | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,977 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | September 15, 2026 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,524 | −$146 −2.2% | — |
| 42d | Contentious-Dinnerdate2 fills | September 30, 2026 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,580 | −$706 −13% | — |
| 43d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 15, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,933 | +$105 +1.8% | 20 |
| 43d | Possible-Brushfire | September 15, 2026 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | −$34 −2.4% | — |
| 43d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | +$19 +1.3% | 20 |
| 43d | LMAOOOO | September 30, 2026 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,328 | −$72 −3.1% | — |
| 43d | fullsendnow | September 30, 2026 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,159 | −$99 −4.6% | — |
| 43d | 99cbets2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,065 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 43d | Empty-Julienne | September 30, 2026 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $15,768 | −$589 −3.7% | — |
| 43d |  abidal | December 31, 2026 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,401 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 43d | 99cbets | October 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,834 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 43d | zlpl | September 15, 2026 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | −$28 −2.6% | — |
| 43d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell2 fills | September 15, 2026 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,352 | +$116 +2.7% | 20 |
| 44d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,763 | +$20 +1.1% | 20 |
| 44d |  Raskell2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,937 | +$44 +1.1% | 20 |
| 44d |  Dios777 | September 15, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$33 +1.7% | 20 |
| 44d |  tourists | October 31, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,276 | +$27 +2.1% | 20 |
| 44d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | October 31, 2026 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$32 +2.7% | 20 |
| 44d | tourists | November 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$15 +1.5% | 20 |
| 44d | tourists | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,843 | +$181 +3.1% | 20 |
| 44d | tourists3 fills | September 15, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $11,249 | +$618 +5.5% | 20 |
| 44d | Shimmering-Age | December 31, 2026 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$73 −4.6% | — |
| 44d |  kl1v | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,108 | +$162 +7.7% | 20 |
| 44d | thoodr | October 31, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 20 |
| 44d | momo513 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,152 | +$48 +2.2% | 20 |
| 44d |  cryptoatma | December 31, 2026 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | −$36 −3.4% | — |
| 44d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$111 +9.0% | 20 |
| 44d |  3648393489047 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $9,493 | +$454 +4.8% | 20 |
| 44d | arbandy | September 30, 2026 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,995 | −$447 −15% | — |
| 44d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | September 30, 2026 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,342 | −$350 −15% | — |
| 44d |  ProfessionalPunter | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$107 +8.1% | 20 |
| 44d | Somber-Ice | November 30, 2026 | BuyNo18¢ → 0¢ | $1,006 | −$1,006 −100% | 20 |
| 44d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | September 15, 2026 | BuyNo31¢ → 0¢ | $3,623 | −$3,623 −100% | 25 |
| 44d | ProfessionalPunter | September 15, 2026 | BuyNo22¢ → 0¢ | $3,332 | −$3,332 −100% | 26 |
| 44d | arbandy | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$413 +22% | 20 |
| 44d | Somber-Ice | December 31, 2026 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,498 | −$561 −16% | — |
| 44d | Somber-Ice5 fills | September 30, 2026 | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $6,120 | −$6,041 −99% | — |
| 44d |  rewardbots | September 30, 2026 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,326 | −$495 −21% | — |
| 44d | Djibooty | September 15, 2026 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,336 | −$445 −19% | — |
| 44d | Somber-Ice | September 15, 2026 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$500 +33% | 20 |
| 44d | rewardbots | September 15, 2026 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,556 | −$1,915 −54% | — |
| 44d | anoin123 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $4,495 | +$1,054 +23% | 20 |
| 44d | Somber-Ice | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,238 | +$822 +25% | 20 |
| 44d | Somber-Ice | December 31, 2026 | SellNo24¢ → 0¢ | $2,581 | +$2,581 +100% | — |
| 44d | Empty-Julienne | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $7,500 | +$8,858 +118% | 22 |
| 45d | barfje | September 30, 2026 | SellYes15¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | −$5,941 −548% | — |
| 45d |  cambridgeisaac | September 30, 2026 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,429 | −$1,429 −100% | 20 |
| 45d | rewardbots | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,324 | −$1,324 −100% | 20 |
| 45d |  SickandTired | September 15, 2026 | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 45d | SickandTired | September 30, 2026 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 45d | Olcan | September 30, 2026 | SellNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,067 | +$1,067 +100% | — |
| 45d | 0xdamocles | September 30, 2026 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $2,243 | −$2,243 −100% | 20 |
| 45d | Somber-Ice | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $2,580 | −$2,580 −100% | 20 |
| 45d | Somber-Ice2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo26¢ → 0¢ | $2,595 | −$2,595 −100% | 24 |
| 45d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | December 31, 2026 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,732 | −$488 −28% | — |
Zachattack5002,560 shares
HorribleWork1,900 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 30, 2026 means the market gives it about 100%.