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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d |  GollumGekko8 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $22,491 | −$3,885 −17% | — |
| 14d |  mdorup | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,025 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | Varil3 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $46,120 | −$46 −0.1% | — |
| 15d |  10000Bets | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | keribit2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $39,960 | −$40 −0.1% | — |
| 16d |  AngryRhino | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | momo513 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,104 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | ckwww | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 17d |  StarMaster | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | QMG-CORE | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | Lisbon | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 17d |  Sylvester.the.Cat | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | Wrathful-Decrease | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,141 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 18d |  PicklePredictor | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,191 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 18d |  Mataty17 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $30,929 | −$442 −1.4% | — |
| 18d | 03303303313 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $967,013 | +$2,266 +0.2% | 4 |
| 18d | Alpheo | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $9,970 | −$30 −0.3% | — |
| 18d | Jfownsk | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,988 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 19d |  Debosnys | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,651 | +$14 +0.3% | 4 |
| 19d | Lisbon2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,915 | +$25 +0.5% | 4 |
| 20d | Coarse-Mallow3 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $14,940 | −$60 −0.4% | — |
| 20d |  MisTKy | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $19,920 | −$80 −0.4% | — |
| 20d | Elias.Thornwell4 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,032 | +$233 +1.4% | 4 |
| 20d |  kinderSman2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,963 | +$17 +0.3% | 4 |
| 20d |  AlAhmeda2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $4,291 | −$909 −21% | — |
| 20d |  Rolocex | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,096 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 20d | CompulsiveGambler | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo100¢ | $1,592 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 20d |  tetrase6 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $47,296 | −$479 −1.0% | — |
| 21d | Knobby-Boat2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyYes1¢ → 0¢ | $2,077 | −$2,077 −100% | 12 |
| 21d | tetrase17 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $150,090 | +$5,405 +3.6% | 4 |
| 21d | Varil | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $45,843 | +$323 +0.7% | 4 |
| 21d | Coarse-Mallow | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $37,238 | +$263 +0.7% | 4 |
| 23d | Bet1nthedark | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$25 +0.5% | 4 |
| 23d | SleeperHunter4 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $27,894 | +$283 +1.0% | 4 |
| 23d | Nikname2003 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 23d | stupid225 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $29,700 | +$1,086 +3.7% | 4 |
| 23d | thoodr5 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $25,526 | +$474 +1.9% | 4 |
| 23d |  Gyoo | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,850 | +$11 +0.6% | 4 |
| 23d | PicklePredictor2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$18 +0.8% | 4 |
| 23d | 0xe72b…3c9c2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,262 | +$38 +0.6% | 4 |
| 23d | Paul97397310 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $40,250 | +$2,020 +5.0% | 4 |
| 24d | UntitledUser1 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 24d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,037 | −$243 −1.1% | — |
| 24d | momo5132 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,739 | +$61 +1.6% | 4 |
| 24d | degenerace | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,934 | −$27 −0.9% | — |
| 27d |  Roro22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,586 | +$14 +0.9% | 4 |
| 27d | On.The.Spectrum | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,943 | −$57 −1.2% | — |
| 28d |  Required-Crane | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,490 | −$10 −0.7% | — |
| 28d | Whimsical-Pawnshop | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,277 | −$38 −0.6% | — |
| 28d | keribit | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo100¢ | $29,850 | +$150 +0.5% | 4 |
| 28d | Trump20282 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $48,835 | +$2,910 +6.0% | 4 |
| 29d | Serene-Decision2 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,189 | +$82 +1.1% | 4 |
| 30d | afdafdafdafdafd | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $26,604 | +$242 +0.9% | 4 |
| 30d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA7 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $122,280 | +$8,980 +7.3% | 4 |
| 31d | anoin1232 fills | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $25,580 | −$325 −1.3% | — |
| 31d | Watchful-Fund | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,848 | +$22 +1.2% | 4 |
| 32d |  sabsabinxz | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,850 | −$245 −1.4% | — |
| 32d | Eatpraylove | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,454 | −$45 −1.3% | — |
| 33d | Required-Crane | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | +$17 +1.1% | 4 |
| 33d | SlenderMan | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,216 | −$25 −1.1% | — |
RememberAmalek106,047 shares
BigRabbit51,971 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.