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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 10,000 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| ↓ 5,000 | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| ↑ 190,000 | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| ↑ 160,000 | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| ↑ 100,000 | 21% | +1 pts | −8 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | $47.5K | in 75d |
| ↑ 110,000 | 9% | — | −3 pts | 8¢ · 10¢ (2¢) | $15.2K | in 75d |
| ↓ 65,000 | 24% | +2 pts | +4 pts | 23¢ · 25¢ (2¢) | $9.55K | in 75d |
| ↓ 20,000 | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $6.42K | in 75d |
| ↓ 55,000 | 11% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $5.76K | in 75d |
| ↓ 40,000 | 3% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $5.34K | in 75d |
| ↓ 60,000 | 17% | — | +2 pts | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | $4.03K | in 75d |
| ↑ 90,000 | 53% | −2 pts | −13 pts | 52¢ · 53¢ (1¢) | $3.65K | in 75d |
| ↓ 45,000 | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $3.3K | in 75d |
| ↓ 30,000 | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $2.96K | in 75d |
| ↓ 70,000 | 39% | −3 pts | +4 pts | 38¢ · 39¢ (1¢) | $2.92K | in 75d |
| ↑ 95,000 | 35% | +1 pts | −5 pts | 34¢ · 35¢ (1¢) | $2.85K | in 75d |
| ↑ 140,000 | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.46K | in 75d |
| ↑ 130,000 | 4% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $1.38K | in 75d |
| ↑ 200,000 | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.35K | in 75d |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.29K | in 75d |
| ↑ 250,000 | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.08K | in 75d |
| ↑ 500,000 | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.01K | in 75d |
| ↓ 50,000 | 8% | — | +1 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $777 | in 75d |
| ↑ 120,000 | 6% | — | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $475 | in 75d |
| ↓ 25,000 | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $417 | in 75d |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2% | — | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $216 | in 75d |
| ↑ 180,000 | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $133 | in 75d |
| ↓ 35,000 | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $66.1 | in 75d |
| ↓ 15,000 | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $60.4 | in 75d |
| ↑ 150,000 | 2% | — | −1 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $16.5 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | Indelible-Roast2 fills | ↑ 110,000 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $2,099 | −$30 −1.4% | — |
| 2h | ↓ 20,000 | BuyNo99¢ | $15,919 | +$20 +0.1% | 2 | |
| 4h | Tobias1909 | ↓ 65,000 | SellYes23¢ → 24¢ | $2,161 | −$94 −4.3% | — |
| 7h | ↓ 40,000 | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $5,038 | −$18 −0.4% | — | |
| 9h | ↓ 30,000 | SellNo98¢ | $8,528 | −$2 −0.0% | — | |
| 9h | ↑ 110,000 | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $3,238 | +$119 +3.7% | 4 | |
| 14h | WearyWanderer | ↑ 100,000 | SellNo80¢ | $1,092 | +$7 +0.6% | — |
| 22h | Chakamanle4 fills | ↑ 100,000 | SellYes24¢ → 21¢ | $12,474 | +$1,707 +14% | — |
| 1d | chirico | ↑ 110,000 | BuyNo91¢ | $1,334 | +$0 +0.0% | 3 |
| 1d | lhoexter89 | ↑ 200,000 | SellNo99¢ | $4,146 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | oegdatam5 fills | ↓ 60,000 | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $17,481 | −$331 −1.9% | 4 |
| 1d | DFV24 fills | ↓ 60,000 | BuyNo84¢ | $17,103 | −$152 −0.9% | 5 |
| 1d | DFV2 | ↓ 50,000 | BuyNo93¢ | $2,322 | −$12 −0.5% | 3 |
| 1d | datamint | ↓ 55,000 | BuyNo90¢ | $3,325 | −$18 −0.6% | 4 |
| 1d | DFV23 fills | ↓ 55,000 | BuyNo90¢ | $13,028 | −$72 −0.6% | 4 |
| 1d | ↓ 35,000 | SellNo98¢ | $14,697 | −$13 −0.1% | — | |
| 1d | greater-fools5 fills | ↓ 65,000 | BuyYes21¢ → 24¢ | $17,512 | +$2,868 +16% | 23 |
| 1d | 0330330339 fills | ↑ 1,000,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $66,561 | −$7 −0.0% | 2 |
| 1d | Tokor | ↓ 65,000 | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $6,964 | −$179 −2.6% | 6 |
| 1d | ↑ 150,000 | BuyNo98¢ | $9,832 | +$12 +0.1% | 2 | |
| 2d | garment-642 | ↑ 250,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | pykue | ↓ 70,000 | SellYes38¢ → 39¢ | $1,311 | −$17 −1.3% | — |
| 2d | oegdatam4 fills | ↓ 50,000 | BuyNo90¢ → 93¢ | $15,705 | +$388 +2.5% | 4 |
| 2d | 0xf705…3ca7 | ↓ 50,000 | BuyNo90¢ → 93¢ | $9,100 | +$253 +2.8% | 4 |
| 2d | notprofitabl | ↓ 50,000 | SellNo90¢ → 93¢ | $35,923 | −$827 −2.3% | — |
| 2d | Indelible-Roast3 fills | ↓ 70,000 | BuyNo62¢ | $3,000 | −$25 −0.8% | 7 |
| 2d | ↑ 95,000 | BuyNo68¢ → 66¢ | $13,747 | −$503 −3.7% | 7 | |
| 2d | 0xf705…3ca72 fills | ↑ 150,000 | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $7,054 | +$38 +0.5% | 2 |
| 2d | ↑ 110,000 | SellNo89¢ → 91¢ | $2,321 | −$52 −2.2% | — | |
| 2d | momo513 | ↓ 40,000 | BuyNo97¢ | $1,454 | +$1 +0.1% | 3 |
| 2d | momo513 | ↑ 140,000 | BuyNo97¢ | $1,356 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | kosaks2 fills | ↑ 150,000 | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,531 | −$20 −0.6% | — |
| 2d | ↓ 30,000 | SellNo98¢ | $2,224 | $0 0.0% | — | |
| 2d | 0xDCCrane | ↑ 90,000 | SellYes51¢ → 53¢ | $3,829 | −$113 −2.9% | — |
| 2d | ↓ 60,000 | BuyYes17¢ | $1,020 | −$30 −2.9% | 7 | |
| 2d | Indelible-Roast | ↓ 65,000 | BuyNo76¢ | $1,000 | +$0 +0.0% | 4 |
| 2d | ↑ 90,000 | BuyNo38¢ → 48¢ | $11,029 | +$2,907 +26% | 13 | |
| 2d | Organic-Intensity | ↓ 45,000 | BuyYes6¢ → 5¢ | $7,172 | −$1,161 −16% | 22 |
| 2d | Organic-Intensity | ↓ 40,000 | BuyYes4¢ → 3¢ | $1,000 | −$54 −5.4% | 6 |
| 2d | Soltan1350 | ↓ 65,000 | SellYes24¢ | $1,459 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 2d | epilote | ↑ 110,000 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $1,530 | +$17 +1.1% | 3 |
| 2d | ↑ 120,000 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $15,131 | +$80 +0.5% | 3 | |
| 2d | ↑ 140,000 | BuyNo97¢ | $51,860 | +$80 +0.2% | 3 | |
| 2d | 0xf705…3ca72 fills | ↓ 55,000 | SellNo91¢ → 90¢ | $4,684 | +$95 +2.0% | — |
| 2d | 0xf705…3ca7 | ↑ 95,000 | SellYes39¢ → 35¢ | $1,954 | +$226 +12% | — |
| 3d | ↓ 65,000 | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $1,301 | +$57 +4.3% | 6 | |
| 3d | Provid | ↑ 500,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,455 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 3d | Beyonddream2 fills | ↓ 65,000 | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $2,652 | −$68 −2.6% | 6 |
| 3d | Beyonddream | ↓ 60,000 | BuyNo86¢ → 84¢ | $1,720 | −$50 −2.9% | 4 |
| 3d | Beyonddream | ↓ 70,000 | BuyNo63¢ → 62¢ | $1,260 | −$30 −2.4% | 7 |
| 3d | Serene-Decision | ↑ 200,000 | SellNo99¢ | $1,422 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | coconutsteaksauce | ↓ 65,000 | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $1,170 | −$30 −2.6% | 4 |
| 3d | xfinity | ↑ 120,000 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $5,000 | +$27 +0.5% | 3 |
| 3d | xfinity | ↑ 130,000 | BuyNo97¢ → 96¢ | $6,000 | −$13 −0.2% | 3 |
| 3d | CauchyBraids | ↑ 90,000 | BuyYes64¢ → 53¢ | $2,392 | −$430 −18% | 7 |
| 4d | sesese111 | ↑ 200,000 | BuyNo99¢ | $1,387 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 4d | hollypop | ↑ 500,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 4d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | ↓ 50,000 | SellNo92¢ → 93¢ | $1,175 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 4d | Inmeron | ↑ 250,000 | SellNo100¢ | $1,801 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | ↓ 65,000 | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $2,340 | −$60 −2.6% | 6 |
What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: <1¢ for ↓ 10,000 means the market gives it about <1%.