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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good afternoon | 100% | +2 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Inflation 40+ times | 0% | −86 pts | −87 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump | 0% | −18 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Median | 0% | −43 pts | −42 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Inflation 60+ times | 0% | −25 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Inflation 50+ times | 0% | −61 pts | −66 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sorry | 100% | +24 pts | +23 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Job 15+ times | 100% | +34 pts | +34 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tariff 13+ times | 100% | +43 pts | +41 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Stock Market | 0% | −28 pts | −32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Percent 25+ times | 0% | −65 pts | −68 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Probability | 0% | −36 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| SEP 4+ times | 0% | −15 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Assumption | 0% | −22 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Not our job | 0% | −28 pts | −28 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Too late | 0% | −18 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 261d |  HowToBasic | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d |  .jeet2 fills | Median | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,303 | +$56 +0.6% | 20 |
| 261d |  1BeaNataTime | Tariff 13+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | Foolish-WitchNew account | Inflation 40+ times | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,319 | −$17 −1.3% | — |
| 261d | Cw2 | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,163 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | Mojomatt77 | Inflation 50+ times | SellNo100¢ | $3,365 | −$17 −0.5% | — |
| 261d | Mojomatt77 | Inflation 40+ times | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,105 | −$54 −1.3% | — |
| 261d | ajaaja | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,734 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 261d | biatchnikka | Inflation 40+ times | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | −$37 −2.7% | — |
| 261d | Complete-Chief | Inflation 40+ times | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,735 | −$79 −4.5% | — |
| 261d | Ordon | Tariff 13+ times | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,125 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 261d | sihowes | Good afternoon | SellYes>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d |  BipBop | Tariff 13+ times | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | +$486 +39% | 20 |
| 261d | BipBop | Job 15+ times | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$129 +12% | 20 |
| 261d | redvinny2 fills | Inflation 60+ times | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,539 | −$160 −2.4% | — |
| 261d |  AgricultureSecretary | Sorry | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 261d |  praktor | Good afternoon | SellYes>99¢ | $11,082 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 261d |  noreasapa | Good afternoon | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | praktor | Good afternoon | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,558 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 261d | Thehabbi | Median | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $1,217 | −$1,217 −100% | 20 |
| 261d | WuTangClan6 fills | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $21,983 | +$338 +1.5% | 20 |
| 262d | redvinny | Inflation 60+ times | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $6,123 | +$2,043 +33% | 20 |
| 262d |  YangYuxiang | Good afternoon | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$18 +1.4% | 20 |
| 262d | Betybet | SEP 4+ times | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$249 +21% | 20 |
| 262d | plankton2 | Good afternoon | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,651 | +$22 +1.3% | 20 |
| 262d | 5551ab5 fills | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $23,499 | +$404 +1.7% | 20 |
| 262d |  bamesjond2 fills | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,251 | +$68 +2.1% | 20 |
| 262d | lgtnb5. | Inflation 50+ times | SellYes60¢ → 0¢ | $1,062 | +$1,062 +100% | — |
| 262d | bviauvokaj | Inflation 40+ times | SellYes85¢ → 0¢ | $3,151 | +$3,151 +100% | — |
| 262d | bviauvokaj | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $2,949 | −$2,949 −100% | 20 |
| 262d | nxcbygabv | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,690 | −$1,690 −100% | 20 |
| 262d | agiufgasdbc | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,539 | −$1,539 −100% | 20 |
| 262d | hAWK12 | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$17 +1.7% | 20 |
| 262d | bxgy | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,596 | −$1,596 −100% | 20 |
| 262d | cbbaf | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,764 | −$1,764 −100% | 20 |
| 262d | SendLin | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$32 +1.6% | 20 |
| 262d |  DerDon | Good afternoon | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$44 +4.2% | 20 |
| 263d |  Barfalomew2 fills | Trump | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,306 | +$354 +8.2% | 20 |
| 264d | nonkenny90 | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,465 | +$35 +2.4% | 20 |
| 269d |  d3generategambling | Job 15+ times | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$466 +45% | 20 |
| 276d | garage | Good afternoon | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,439 | −$39 −2.7% | — |
| 276d | nangongyingque3 fills | Good afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $20,124 | +$410 +2.0% | 20 |
| 278d | garage | Good afternoon | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,316 | +$53 +4.1% | 20 |
| 281d | Lolololol2 fills | Good afternoon | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,987 | +$135 +1.4% | 20 |
| 297d |  HorizonHill | Stock Market | SellNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | — |
| 297d | HorizonHill | Stock Market | BuyNo59¢ → 100¢ | $1,770 | +$1,230 +69% | 20 |
rc-iv5,920 sharesJerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Good afternoon means the market gives it about 100%.