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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 1 | 100% | +34 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 28 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 29 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 2 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 3 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 4 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 5 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 6 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 7 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 8 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 9 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 10 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No Raid | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380d | loord | October 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,684 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 380d | IbnKhaldun | October 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,346 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 380d | esac2 fills | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,601 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 380d | Pavelevel | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,050 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 380d |  Dumbeldor2003 | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,000 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 380d | KokoVeLeon3 | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $33,502 | +$78 +0.2% | 4 |
| 380d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,225 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 380d | Nebula-Croissant2 fills | October 1 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,850 | −$79 −0.7% | — |
| 380d |  CaptainCoinflip | October 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,159 | −$21 −0.5% | — |
| 380d | wisser | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,946 | +$15 +0.3% | 4 |
| 380d |  scottilicious | October 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,301 | +$13 +0.4% | 4 |
| 380d |  Dropper4 fills | October 1 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $22,993 | +$385 +1.7% | 4 |
| 380d |  MisTKy32 fills | October 1 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,008 | +$143 +2.8% | 4 |
| 380d | greengasper | October 1 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | −$50 −4.2% | — |
| 380d |  autisem3 fills | October 1 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $5,129 | −$721 −14% | — |
| 380d |  Car | October 1 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,420 | −$44 −3.1% | — |
| 380d | StopNoticing | October 1 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,077 | +$99 +3.2% | 4 |
| 380d | arttheking | October 1 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$95 +4.7% | 4 |
| 380d |  KnureKnume | October 1 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$81 +7.5% | 4 |
| 380d | DS-53 fills | October 1 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,789 | +$169 +4.5% | 4 |
| 380d | IbnKhaldun | October 1 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,230 | +$121 +5.4% | 4 |
| 380d |  manekineko | October 1 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,684 | +$87 +5.2% | 4 |
| 380d | Nebula-Croissant2 fills | October 1 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$521 +17% | 4 |
| 380d | CaptainCoinflip | October 1 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | +$238 +20% | 4 |
| 380d | Azarela3 fills | October 1 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $9,073 | +$2,366 +26% | 4 |
| 381d | wubddh3 fills | October 1 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,393 | +$1,177 +27% | 4 |
| 381d |  kiki.aoe | October 2 | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 381d | kiki.aoe | September 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,814 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 381d | autisem | October 1 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$61 +6.1% | 4 |
| 381d | KokoVeLeon3 | September 30 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | +$195 +11% | 4 |
| 381d | Dlsjfbrh | September 30 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,821 | −$375 −21% | — |
| 381d |  Pulser | October 1 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | −$563 −54% | — |
| 381d | KokoVeLeon3 | October 1 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | −$576 −51% | — |
| 381d |  UwO | September 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | +$80 +5.6% | 4 |
| 381d |  HagiwaraSr. | September 30 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | −$162 −9.9% | — |
| 381d | KokoVeLeon3 | October 2 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | +$400 +20% | 4 |
| 382d | kiki.aoe | September 30 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$817 +41% | 4 |
| 382d |  middleoftheocean2 fills | October 1 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $2,365 | −$2,365 −100% | 4 |
| 382d | esac | September 29 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | +$10 +0.7% | 4 |
| 383d |  JoeTrum | September 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,187 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
2slow4me21,794 sharesThe Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve according to the date ET Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers. This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 1 means the market gives it about 100%.