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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12-15 | 100% | +2 pts | +65 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Before October 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 15-18 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 19-22 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 23-26 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 27-30 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31-November 3 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 4-7 | 0% | −3 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 8-11 | 0% | −1 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 16+ | 0% | −2 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 338d | acrx999 | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,209 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | Qilin8 | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,831 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | ubun | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,401 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | nt789 | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,218 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  bamesjond3 fills | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,637 | −$40 −0.3% | — |
| 338d | bamesjond | November 16+ | SellNo>99¢ | $15,638 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  superforecastor | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,099 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  AnonSer3 fills | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,833 | −$61 −1.0% | — |
| 338d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,449 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  AllByMyseIf | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | ot3drew | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,294 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  Roflan-ludoman | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | abby3241 | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,385 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  blkp | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | romanticpaul | November 16+ | SellNo>99¢ | $6,993 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | pikaqiuzwx | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,501 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 338d |  prescient | November 16+ | SellNo>99¢ | $7,398 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | prescient | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,009 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | matto- | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,104 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | deeznuts11 | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,378 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | Key-Android | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,079 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | 0x3dA304b247F16E | November 16+ | SellNo>99¢ | $10,047 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | saijksj | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,648 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 338d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 12-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,449 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 338d | VvVv2 fills | November 16+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,615 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 338d | bamesjond | November 16+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,790 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 338d | bamesjond | November 12-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,349 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 338d | Unfit-Tattler | November 12-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,374 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 338d | Radahn-1316 fills | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $44,773 | +$311 +0.7% | 4 |
| 338d | Eatpraylove | November 12-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,769 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 338d |  cynical-reason3 fills | November 16+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $23,048 | +$507 +2.2% | 4 |
| 338d | costcostaff0141 fills | November 16+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $88,648 | +$702 +0.8% | 4 |
| 338d | cigarettes17 fills | November 16+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $52,905 | +$920 +1.7% | 4 |
| 338d |  MisTKy3 | November 12-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,801 | +$40 +0.2% | 4 |
| 338d | Siziriv6 fills | November 12-15 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,426 | −$265 −2.3% | — |
| 338d | AllByMyseIf | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$18 +0.6% | 4 |
| 338d | cynical-reason | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $26,946 | +$264 +1.0% | 4 |
| 338d | tsekinming01 | November 16+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,140 | +$193 +1.1% | 4 |
| 338d | alion5 fills | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,563 | +$83 +1.5% | 4 |
| 338d | Volt66 | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,085 | +$41 +1.3% | 4 |
| 338d |  0xdc3E831cad3 fills | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,190 | −$151 −1.1% | — |
| 338d | alideux | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | −$20 −1.4% | — |
| 338d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,978 | −$62 −1.2% | — |
| 338d | OvakDjokovic | November 16+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,347 | −$33 −1.4% | — |
| 338d | wokerjoesleeper6 fills | November 16+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $17,917 | +$541 +3.0% | 4 |
| 338d | OvakDjokovic | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | −$15 −1.3% | — |
| 338d | deeznuts11 | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | +$14 +1.0% | 4 |
| 338d |  NoClueAtAll | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,908 | −$65 −1.3% | — |
| 338d | pupsyacom | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,680 | +$20 +1.2% | 4 |
| 338d | MANananan | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$36 +1.2% | 4 |
| 338d | Shameless-Highway | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,802 | +$22 +1.2% | 4 |
| 338d | hubtc4002 fills | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,108 | −$210 −1.2% | — |
| 338d |  zzzx2 | November 12-15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,945 | −$27 −0.9% | — |
| 338d | yihgytu | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | +$8 +0.8% | 4 |
| 338d | hubtc400 | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,930 | +$70 +0.7% | 4 |
| 338d | 0xd772…ceb5 | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,042 | +$21 +0.7% | 4 |
| 338d | zhaoyi888 | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | +$15 +0.8% | 4 |
| 338d | cryptoaxel | November 16+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$8 +0.8% | 4 |
| 338d | Dead-Skylightt3 fills | November 12-15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,579 | +$127 +1.3% | 4 |
| 338d |  Crypto-Dawg | November 16+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,936 | +$64 +1.6% | 4 |
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 12-15 means the market gives it about 100%.