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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Shirley | 100% | +1 pts | +36 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| George Santos | 0% | −61 pts | −28 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Judy Shelton | 0% | −9 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tucker Carlson | 0% | −13 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Erika Kirk | 100% | +30 pts | +32 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| María Corina Machado | 0% | −36 pts | −28 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ilhan Omar | 100% | +6 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Gianni Infantino | 0% | −15 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nicki Minaj | 0% | −30 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | −22 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Barron Trump | 100% | +38 pts | +71 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Al Green | 100% | +37 pts | +39 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kash Patel | 0% | −89 pts | −62 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Dana White | 0% | −22 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0% | −2 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nancy Pelosi | 100% | +4 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jensen Huang | 0% | −2 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jared Kushner | 100% | +4 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Anthony Kennedy | 0% | −48 pts | −63 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ketanji Brown Jackson | 0% | −33 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Scott Bessent | 100% | +2 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Ivanka Trump | 100% | +13 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Susan Collins | 100% | +3 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 0% | −4 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mitch McConnell | 0% | −81 pts | −52 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| John Fetterman | 100% | +3 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kristi Noem | 100% | +3 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jon Ossoff | 100% | +9 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Brett M. Kavanaugh | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Neil Gorsuch | 0% | −48 pts | −71 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| John G. Roberts | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jeff Bezos | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gavin Newsom | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Brooke Rollins | 100% | +17 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| David Ellison | 100% | +93 pts | +71 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Doug Burgum | 100% | +15 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Pete Hegseth | 100% | +18 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Sonia Sotomayor | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Amy Coney Barrett | 100% | +22 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Viktor Orbán | 0% | −14 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chris Wright | 100% | +10 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Clarence Thomas | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Samuel A. Alito | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elena Kagan | 100% | +9 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Chris Murphy | 0% | −1 pts | −71 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Brilyn Hollyhand | 0% | −23 pts | −32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | −6 pts | −28 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230d | 0xD03CdFBAb84De34A9C365BE2198571E6fb5C3F4 | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $8,941 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 230d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $99,900 | +$100 +0.1% | 4 |
| 230d | Vital-Mathematics2 fills | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $20,944 | −$40 −0.2% | — |
| 230d | Syaiu1542466 | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $1,548 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Debosnys4 fills | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,190 | +$65 +0.3% | 4 |
| 231d |  noreasapa | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $139,880 | −$140 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | trader-a2876c43 | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $1,376 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Oompa-Loompa | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $1,520 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  NIRVANA87 | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $85,878 | +$86 +0.1% | 4 |
| 231d | Vital-Mathematics | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,965 | +$19 +0.1% | 4 |
| 231d |  pemul1s | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $14,985 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  bamesjond8 fills | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $36,711 | −$83 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  Ahpo3 fills | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $14,430 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | M888 | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $22,200 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  SQP3G | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $2,478 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | dube3 fills | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $36,077 | −$36 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $5,746 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 232d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $81,034 | −$81 −0.1% | — |
| 232d |  Nik- | Nick Shirley | SellYes>99¢ | $5,307 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 232d | 033033033 | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,984 | +$16 +0.1% | 4 |
| 232d | bamesjond2 fills | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,911 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 232d | dube | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,000 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 233d |  scout2 fills | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,696 | +$50 +0.3% | 4 |
| 233d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,811 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 233d | TheLastOfMachine | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,000 | +$24 +0.3% | 4 |
| 233d | fi3nu8920-4 | Nick Shirley | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,427 | −$115 −1.0% | — |
| 234d |  macrosteaks3 fills | Nick Shirley | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,415 | −$40 −0.9% | — |
| 234d | 0xD03CdFBAb84De34A9C365BE2198571E6fb5C3F43 fills | Nick Shirley | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,589 | +$560 +12% | 4 |
| 234d | fi3nu8920-4 | Nick Shirley | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $9,316 | +$2,227 +24% | 4 |
| 234d | qwe258 | Nick Shirley | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $12,136 | −$864 −7.1% | — |
| 234d | macrosteaks2 fills | Nick Shirley | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,523 | +$217 +4.8% | 4 |
| 234d |  lranon2nd | Nick Shirley | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | −$100 −5.3% | — |
| 234d | lranon2nd | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,015 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | qwe258 | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,987 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d |  1BeaNataTime10 fills | Nick Shirley | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,995 | +$45 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | Bearpp | Nick Shirley | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,233 | −$30 −2.5% | — |
| 234d |  aenews2 | Nick Shirley | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $40,038 | −$985 −2.5% | — |
| 234d |  Mr-Krabs | Nick Shirley | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,709 | +$22 +1.3% | 4 |
| 234d | bamesjond | Nick Shirley | BuyNo3¢ → 0¢ | $1,045 | −$1,045 −100% | 4 |
| 234d | Trustinghorse | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,916 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d |  khai13 | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,501 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | whenisit | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,000 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | Trustinghorse3 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $48,285 | +$56 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | Trustinghorse | Nick Shirley | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$10 +1.0% | 4 |
| 234d | Hakai1 | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,663 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 234d | Trustinghorse | Nicki Minaj | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,371 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | bamesjond | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,123 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 234d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 234d |  beenraping9 fills | Kash Patel | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $18,070 | +$319 +1.8% | 4 |
| 234d | mwenya | Nick Shirley | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,957 | +$43 +2.2% | 4 |
| 234d | TheLastOfMachine | Mark Zuckerberg | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,234 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | beenraping | George Santos | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,064 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | beenraping | María Corina Machado | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,344 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | 0xb413…1cb7 | George Santos | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | −$30 −2.5% | — |
| 234d | beenraping2 fills | Tucker Carlson | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,252 | −$404 −12% | — |
| 234d | aldent | Tucker Carlson | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,046 | −$246 −4.1% | — |
| 234d | beenraping | Ketanji Brown Jackson | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,147 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | beenraping | Mark Zuckerberg | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,990 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 234d | beenraping | Jensen Huang | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d | HeroJason | Barron Trump | SellYes>99¢ | $1,645 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
siick50,000 sharesThe 2026 State of the Union address is scheduled to be held in the Chamber of the U.S. House of Representatives on February 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 State of the Union address. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the State of the Union address is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Nick Shirley means the market gives it about 100%.