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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 100% | +3 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mike Waltz | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tom Cotton | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mike Pompeo | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Christopher Miller | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Robert O'Brien | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mike Gallagher | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Joni Ernst | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Thomas Massie | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mike Rogers | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ron DeSantis | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elbridge Colby | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 630d | Saam47 | Pete Hegseth | SellYes>99¢ | $2,813 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 630d |  CallmeEuphoria | Pete Hegseth | SellYes>99¢ | $1,041 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 630d |  sleepy-panda | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,172 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | cigarettes5 fills | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,534 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | longtern | Joni Ernst | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,049 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper4 fills | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $43,359 | +$43 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper4 fills | Joni Ernst | BuyNo>99¢ | $43,359 | +$43 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | longtern | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d |  pirateshere | Joni Ernst | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,674 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | rpo | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,449 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | oVyg7f | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,079 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | oVyg7f | Joni Ernst | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,079 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | cigarettes4 fills | Joni Ernst | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,220 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d |  MineGuyBonds | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,178 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d |  MotherTheresa7 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $512,318 | +$891 +0.2% | 4 |
| 630d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,178 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d |  Euan | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $35,421 | +$35 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | Breezy-Entrance | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $55,499 | +$56 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | cigarettes | Mike Pompeo | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Christopher Miller | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,724 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | cigarettes | Christopher Miller | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Mike Pompeo | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,724 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | cigarettes2 fills | Mike Gallagher | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,736 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper | Mike Gallagher | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,627 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | cigarettes | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,688 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 630d | eNakeVets | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,678 | +$12 +0.7% | 4 |
| 630d |  Flipadelphia | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | +$98 +4.9% | 4 |
| 630d |  zalkida | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,617 | +$156 +6.0% | 4 |
| 631d | szakalmonster | Mike Pompeo | SellNo>99¢ | $2,974 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 631d | szakalmonster | Mike Pompeo | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,978 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 631d | szakalmonster | Christopher Miller | SellNo>99¢ | $2,978 | −$11 −0.4% | — |
| 631d | szakalmonster | Christopher Miller | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,986 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 632d | semi | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,973 | +$479 +5.3% | 4 |
| 633d | 0x7853…36d8 | Pete Hegseth | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,725 | −$275 −5.8% | — |
| 633d | MotherTheresa | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo6¢ → 0¢ | $1,610 | −$1,610 −100% | 8 |
| 634d |  KimJonEn2 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,443 | +$191 +5.5% | 4 |
| 634d |  SantaBaby3 fills | Pete Hegseth | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,567 | −$227 −6.4% | — |
| 635d | Icantpredict | Pete Hegseth | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,105 | −$132 −6.3% | — |
| 635d | Mrhack2102912 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,354 | +$290 +12% | 4 |
| 635d | HD8 | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$215 +5.4% | 4 |
| 635d | Mrhack210291 | Pete Hegseth | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | −$75 −6.2% | — |
| 635d |  ciro2 | Pete Hegseth | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,755 | −$173 −6.3% | — |
| 635d | Doggieson | Pete Hegseth | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,586 | −$396 −6.0% | — |
| 636d | EscalateFund | Ron DeSantis | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,951 | −$49 −1.0% | — |
| 637d | 8811123 fills | Pete Hegseth | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $7,538 | −$963 −13% | — |
| 638d | romanticpaul | Pete Hegseth | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,214 | −$60 −5.0% | — |
| 638d | PoloSte | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$49 +2.4% | 4 |
| 639d | 0xd127…bca1 | Pete Hegseth | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | −$54 −5.3% | — |
| 639d | ASOFE | Pete Hegseth | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,369 | −$329 −7.5% | — |
| 640d | Irish77 | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$114 +4.9% | 4 |
| 640d | victorrobertotrader | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,319 | +$369 +11% | 4 |
| 640d | DeezzNutzz2 fills | Pete Hegseth | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $4,277 | −$621 −15% | — |
| 640d |  Extramile123 | Pete Hegseth | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $4,599 | −$456 −9.9% | — |
| 641d |  Erasmus.4 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $10,215 | +$1,540 +15% | 4 |
| 641d | GildaTrixie | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,445 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 641d | davidfrasier | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,465 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 641d | w0s4e | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,480 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 641d | xlse | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,485 | +$17 +0.3% | 4 |
| 641d | akojo | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,384 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 641d | zkhrn | Robert O'Brien | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,374 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
This is a market on predicting the individual who will be confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Pete Hegseth means the market gives it about 100%.