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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No announcement by December 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kevin Hassett | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Arthur Laffer | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Larry Kudlow | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Judy Shelton | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ron Paul | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Scott Bessent | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chris Waller | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Michelle Bowman | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Roger W. Ferguson Jr. | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rick Rieder | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d | hollyber | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,828 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 289d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,770 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 289d | cigarettes8 fills | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,159 | +$153 +0.8% | 20 |
| 289d |  elmcap24 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,605 | +$105 +0.6% | 20 |
| 290d |  Official-Market-Maker2 fills | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,272 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 290d | Official-Market-Maker2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,587 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d | hollyber4 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $16,756 | +$217 +1.3% | 20 |
| 291d | Solmaxi8888.sol2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,812 | −$20 −0.7% | — |
| 291d | cigarettes6 fills | Chris Waller | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,885 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d | cigarettes6 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,887 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d | influenz.eth2 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,249 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d | influenz.eth2 fills | Chris Waller | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,249 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d |  Debosnys2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,146 | +$434 +5.3% | 20 |
| 291d | cigarettes2 fills | Scott Bessent | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,843 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 291d |  pBs13372 fills | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,308 | −$493 −6.7% | — |
| 291d | lug | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 292d | Vilgefortz2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,833 | +$147 +5.2% | 20 |
| 292d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,630 | −$198 −5.5% | — |
| 292d | SplendidAmadeus2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,648 | −$62 −1.7% | — |
| 292d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,296 | +$23 +1.7% | 20 |
| 296d | cnfiguridofjnfke | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,012 | −$38 −1.9% | — |
| 296d |  KimJonEn | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,363 | −$98 −2.9% | — |
| 297d | sanhu04 | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,498 | +$178 +2.1% | 20 |
| 297d | Solmaxi8888.sol2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $7,212 | +$381 +5.3% | 20 |
| 297d | allen114 | Michelle Bowman | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,900 | +$103 +0.6% | 20 |
| 297d | influenz.eth | Michelle Bowman | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,657 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 297d |  gimmeurmoney | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,752 | +$148 +3.1% | 20 |
| 297d | influenz.eth | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,632 | +$35 +2.1% | 20 |
| 297d | influenz.eth | Rick Rieder | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,665 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 297d | cigarettes3 fills | Rick Rieder | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,454 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 297d | cigarettes3 fills | Michelle Bowman | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,347 | +$38 +0.6% | 20 |
| 297d |  truthteller | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,190 | −$193 −3.7% | — |
| 298d | Incognitoo | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,931 | −$72 −3.7% | — |
| 298d | BurningTime2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,132 | +$263 +5.1% | 20 |
| 298d | CanadianGoose | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$50 +3.4% | 20 |
| 298d |  TheWolfOfPoly4 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $7,146 | +$1,421 +20% | 20 |
| 298d |  Car3 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $4,797 | +$1,988 +41% | 20 |
| 299d |  DavidTrezeguet2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $14,186 | +$1,068 +7.5% | 20 |
| 299d |  uncleroger | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$84 −7.5% | — |
| 299d |  flow-trader-at-optiver2 fills | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,823 | +$73 +2.6% | 20 |
| 299d | flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,903 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 299d | flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | Michelle Bowman | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,894 | +$22 +0.6% | 20 |
| 299d | flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | Scott Bessent | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,908 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 299d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,323 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 299d | f2hf84hg52h53 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $8,638 | +$770 +8.9% | 20 |
| 301d |  willis1111 | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,182 | −$334 −8.0% | — |
| 301d | maxhmz5270 | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$79 +5.3% | 20 |
| 301d | willis1111 | Kevin Hassett | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | −$35 −3.4% | — |
| 302d | uncleroger2 fills | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,543 | +$368 +10% | 20 |
| 302d | truthteller | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,496 | +$304 +8.7% | 20 |
| 302d |  bosshog | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | −$150 −11% | — |
| 302d | Bukaj0889 | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$495 +9.9% | 20 |
| 303d | Ronaldo2100 | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,869 | −$208 −11% | — |
| 303d | acrx999 | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,204 | +$396 +6.4% | 20 |
| 304d | JeremyWade | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,917 | −$393 −10% | — |
| 304d | HighLevelAlchemy | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,045 | −$202 −9.9% | — |
| 304d | UnitP | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,273 | +$285 +8.7% | 20 |
| 305d |  .jeet | No announcement by December 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,867 | −$162 −8.7% | — |
| 305d | .jeet | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,789 | +$211 +7.6% | 20 |
| 305d | mjO | No announcement by December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $12,568 | +$1,093 +8.7% | 20 |
Trippelwater69 shares
GurkenPickel68 shares
SemyonMarmeladov3,092 shares
tetrose3,000 sharesTrump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/). This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31". The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No announcement by December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.