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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 4% | — | — | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Elon Musk | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Diddy | 5% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Ryan Salame | 14% | +1 pts | — | 13¢ · 16¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Martin Shkreli | 3% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4% | — | — | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Derek Chauvin | 4% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Do Kwon | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Himself | 5% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 11% | — | −1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Steve Bannon | 6% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Nicolas Maduro | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Matt Gaetz | 6% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Hunter Biden | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Joe Exotic | 6% | — | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Julian Assange | 4% | — | −2 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Edward Snowden | 4% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Roger Ver | 5% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Antoine Massey | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Eric Adams | 2% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Andrew Tate | 3% | — | — | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Bob Menendez | 5% | 0 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Daniel Penny | 13% | −13 pts | +12 pts | 2¢ · 23¢ (21¢) | $48 | in 76d |
| Stefan Brodie | 17% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 16¢ · 18¢ (2¢) | $30 | in 76d |
| Donald Brodie | 20% | −2 pts | −12 pts | 19¢ · 20¢ (1¢) | $27.5 | in 76d |
| Young Thug | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $21.4 | in 76d |
| Roger Stone | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | $5.2 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  Car | Himself | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,569 | +$44 +2.8% | 20 |
| 13d |  ponczyk | Diddy | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,084 | −$14 −1.3% | 20 |
| 49d |  elmcap23 fills | Sam Bankman-Fried | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $8,698 | +$183 +2.1% | 20 |
| 87d | 0x8931…a90c | Hunter Biden | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $1,175 | +$22 +1.9% | 20 |
| 87d | 0x8931…a90c | Diddy | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,058 | +$41 +2.0% | 20 |
| 95d | Wagmi420 | Sam Bankman-Fried | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,034 | −$24 −2.3% | — |
| 100d |  johnnyA | Sam Bankman-Fried | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,020 | −$25 −2.4% | — |
| 101d | elmcap2 | Do Kwon | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $1,115 | +$39 +3.5% | 20 |
| 104d |  ineedmassage | Ryan Salame | BuyNo72¢ → 86¢ | $2,211 | +$403 +18% | 20 |
| 127d | QMG-CORE | Sam Bankman-Fried | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,122 | −$70 −6.2% | — |
| 128d |  Anjun3 fills | Sam Bankman-Fried | BuyNo89¢ → 96¢ | $6,958 | +$580 +8.3% | 20 |
| 130d | QMG-CORE | Sam Bankman-Fried | BuyNo87¢ → 96¢ | $1,065 | +$110 +10% | 20 |
| 130d | johnnyA | Sam Bankman-Fried | BuyNo87¢ → 96¢ | $1,074 | +$116 +11% | 20 |
| 187d |  allenzzz2 fills | Derek Chauvin | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $6,875 | +$245 +3.6% | 20 |
| 189d |  XueqinJiang | Martin Shkreli | BuyNo84¢ → 97¢ | $4,919 | +$718 +15% | 20 |
| 190d | selador | Martin Shkreli | SellNo81¢ → 97¢ | $1,035 | −$201 −19% | — |
| 192d |  forever123 | Derek Chauvin | SellNo87¢ → 96¢ | $2,903 | −$299 −10% | — |
| 235d | Minty-Vane2 fills | Sam Bankman-Fried | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $5,106 | +$94 +1.8% | 20 |
| 281d |  wagmiser | Sam Bankman-Fried | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,600 | +$19 +1.2% | 20 |
| 296d |  UMAisawesome | Keonne Rodriguez | BuyNo76¢ → 90¢ | $1,458 | +$261 +18% | 20 |
bernardbulletin9,187 shares
outcomes2,500 shares
2B9S586 shareselmcap212,323 sharesAnjun7,026 shares
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b041,394 sharesjohnnyA1,066 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for Sam Bankman-Fried means the market gives it about 4%.