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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110d |  SeungHee | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,191 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 110d |  budu1006 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,067 | −$170 −1.2% | — |
| 111d | 0x5791…b9bf | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,026 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | SILF | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $24,975 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 112d |  elmcap212 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $125,193 | +$840 +0.7% | 20 |
| 112d | isw | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 113d | popbhg | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,111 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 113d |  EarthlyDelights2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,993 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 113d | 2100m4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $13,027 | −$39 −0.3% | — |
| 113d | 0x8931…a90c | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,950 | +$50 +0.2% | 20 |
| 114d | Cbb. | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,785 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 114d |  GhostMbao3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,191 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 114d | btcvseth | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,246 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 114d | ghrisf | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,057 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 115d | gAZZZ-446 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,444 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 115d | GhostMbao | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,802 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 116d |  CongMingLabs3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $71,865 | −$216 −0.3% | — |
| 116d |  TOKYOCC | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,783 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 116d | Ovrrep | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $10,668 | −$32 −0.3% | — |
| 116d |  MisterAnderson.eth | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,957 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 116d | WarpSpeed | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $15,801 | −$48 −0.3% | — |
| 116d | btcvseth | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 117d |  uncleroger | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,970 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 |
| 118d | J-W3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,298 | +$88 +1.7% | 20 |
| 118d | hklcrypt | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $1,080 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 118d | hklcrypt | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,081 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 118d | yonose2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,756 | +$43 +0.4% | 20 |
| 118d | ghrisf | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 118d | koalallllll2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $2,951 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 118d | a43857 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,282 | −$194 −0.9% | — |
| 119d | fretd | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,017 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 119d | bulian | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 119d | zaerchary | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 119d | bellaw | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,061 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 119d | nanrensishi | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,086 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 119d | Odd-Property | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $2,042 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 119d | baofu1682 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,034 | −$33 −1.1% | — |
| 120d | 2100m14 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $51,459 | +$661 +1.3% | 20 |
| 120d |  ditto5553 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $15,434 | −$78 −0.5% | — |
| 120d |  wish-3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,932 | +$68 +0.4% | 20 |
| 121d | fffff1232 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,783 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 121d | kosaks | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $1,104 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 122d | pmcb4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,538 | −$128 −1.1% | — |
| 122d | Bikesarethebest | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $1,298 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 123d | dandan14 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,743 | −$59 −1.2% | — |
| 123d | SnowyYeti | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,876 | −$24 −0.4% | — |
| 123d | fqyfqy | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,281 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 124d | 0x1e72…008516 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $16,131 | −$76 −0.5% | — |
| 124d | 0x1e72…008516 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,157 | +$50 +0.3% | 20 |
| 124d | 0x470f…64a015 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,731 | −$79 −0.5% | — |
| 124d | 0x470f…64a015 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,747 | +$63 +0.4% | 20 |
| 124d | dandan13 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,737 | +$32 +0.9% | 20 |
| 125d | xenonliu2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,542 | −$60 −1.1% | — |
| 125d | koalallllll | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $3,071 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 126d | lion449 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 126d | CongMingLabs4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,390 | +$132 +0.7% | 20 |
| 126d |  videlake | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,896 | +$30 +0.6% | 20 |
| 127d | ssxji | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,760 | −$27 −0.7% | — |
| 127d | Bigyuan | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,299 | −$43 −0.8% | — |
| 127d |  AlexLiu | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.