Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 442d | Sharky6999 | Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,052 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 443d | dakaiyunzhaofu | Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 445d | daviskatherine | Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,049 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok-4 has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.