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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | — | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65d | Renan20304 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,626 | +$286 +3.0% | 20 |
| 70d | LulaVaiPerder3 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $11,512 | −$676 −5.9% | — |
| 70d | 657657572 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,551 | −$81 −3.2% | — |
| 72d | SuperavitFiscal | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,273 | −$84 −1.0% | — |
| 75d | Splendid-Wild | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 77d | momo513 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,967 | +$33 +1.1% | 20 |
| 77d | Unwelcome-Fig4 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,304 | +$222 +2.7% | 20 |
| 78d | QMG-CORE2 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,856 | +$144 +2.5% | 20 |
| 83d | Renan2030 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$55 −5.1% | — |
| 89d | Musk52 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,904 | +$96 +3.3% | 20 |
| 93d | LulaVaiPerder7 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $13,839 | +$1,305 +9.4% | 20 |
| 108d | SuperavitFiscal4 fills | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $7,709 | +$720 +9.3% | 20 |
| 122d | bmmmm4 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$247 +12% | 20 |
kallbe719 sharesThe 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify. This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.