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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 26 | 100% | 0 pts | +15 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | −26 pts | −88 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 20 | 100% | +17 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 21 | 100% | +18 pts | +21 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 23 | 100% | +16 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 24 | 100% | +11 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 25 | 100% | +8 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 18 | 100% | +7 pts | +48 pts | 98¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| April 22 | 100% | +11 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 27 | 100% | +9 pts | +21 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 19 | 0% | −84 pts | −60 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 17 | 100% | +8 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 29 | 100% | +4 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 13 | 100% | +29 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| April 14 | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 15 | 100% | +15 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 100% | +18 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 12 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 16 | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 11 | 100% | +41 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d |  AgricultureSecretary | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,143 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 169d |  tomatosauce2 | April 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,194 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  Jiber | April 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,597 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  Kalags2 fills | April 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,670 | −$15 −0.2% | — |
| 170d | tomatosauce2 | April 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 170d | Michael5289 | April 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,299 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 172d |  BadQuant | April 28 | BuyYes90¢ → 0¢ | $1,402 | −$1,402 −100% | 7 |
| 172d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd2 fills | April 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,150 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 173d | Kalags | April 26 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 174d |  wisechinaman | April 25 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,166 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 174d | Well-Groomed-Netbook | April 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,361 | +$18 +1.3% | 4 |
| 175d | BadQuant | April 27 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$91 +8.7% | 5 |
| 176d | Kalags | April 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,648 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 176d | Elaborate-Particular | April 25 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | +$105 +7.5% | 6 |
| 176d |  Car | April 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,693 | +$19 +1.1% | 4 |
| 177d | BadQuant | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,187 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 177d |  club-neegy-fc | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,351 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 177d | Larreus | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,337 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 177d | Kalags | April 23 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$12 +1.1% | 4 |
| 178d | Larreus | April 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,181 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 178d | Kalags | April 21 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,829 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Larreus | April 21 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,069 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 179d | Elaborate-Particular | April 21 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | +$118 +11% | 4 |
| 179d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,139 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 179d | ddolsw123r | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 179d | tomatosauce2 | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,698 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 179d | superbowlbet | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,109 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 179d | Awkward-Bride | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,286 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 179d | 0xB29304109238401 | April 20 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,227 | +$255 +21% | 4 |
| 180d | d-flow | April 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,740 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 181d | ddolsw123r | April 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 181d | OraculumNobius2 fills | April 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,000 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 181d | iddd | April 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$10 +0.8% | 4 |
| 181d | L.X | April 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,285 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 183d |  Relaccsed | April 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,716 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 183d | Sarcastic-MinimalismNew account | April 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,292 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 184d | Elaborate-Particular | April 17 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | +$152 +12% | 7 |
| 184d | Elaborate-Particular | April 16 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | +$128 +12% | 9 |
| 186d |  49023809234904 | April 13 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 |
| 186d | tomatosauce22 fills | April 13 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,864 | +$23 +0.8% | 4 |
| 186d |  halker | April 13 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$21 +2.0% | 4 |
| 187d |  meagainsttheworld | April 13 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$35 +2.8% | 4 |
| 187d | Flimsy-Fibre | April 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,238 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 187d | Relaccsed | April 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,397 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 187d |  ProfitMuhammedPBUH | April 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 188d | halker | April 11 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,433 | +$50 +2.0% | 4 |
| 188d |  drakelong | April 11 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,648 | +$327 +12% | 4 |
| 189d |  BOOMCIAGA | April 24 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$95 +8.7% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 26 means the market gives it about 100%.