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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 106d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55d | BlindGibbon | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo99¢ | $1,961 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 60d | hodlor | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo99¢ | $11,828 | +$6 +0.1% | — |
| 91d | moscow-professor | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo98¢ → 99¢ | $2,929 | −$40 −1.4% | — |
| 112d | TheAlphaKing2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $9,995 | −$299 −3.0% | — |
| 113d | pada | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $6,249 | −$176 −2.8% | — |
| 115d | pada2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $5,167 | +$159 +3.1% | 4 |
| 127d | bazzaloing | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,408 | −$55 −3.9% | — |
| 130d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $9,568 | +$377 +3.9% | 4 |
| 136d |  Zarshka2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $2,572 | +$109 +4.3% | 4 |
| 137d | idkwhatimdoinggg2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $3,451 | −$148 −4.3% | — |
| 139d |  Kiddosss | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,276 | +$52 +4.0% | 4 |
| 139d |  VegemiteLover | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $2,823 | +$114 +4.0% | 4 |
| 142d |  acc-1 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $4,091 | +$166 +4.1% | 4 |
| 171d | 123pocky5 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $8,404 | −$326 −3.9% | — |
| 171d |  twe2nty | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $2,277 | +$95 +4.2% | 4 |
| 179d | 123pocky4 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo97¢ → 99¢ | $8,085 | +$158 +2.0% | 4 |
| 188d | TheAlphaKing | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $10,000 | +$294 +2.9% | 4 |
| 190d |  0xdc3E831cad3 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $4,811 | −$232 −4.8% | — |
| 208d | clingtastic | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,229 | +$58 +4.7% | 4 |
| 220d |  DEGENKHAN4 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $9,618 | +$393 +4.1% | 4 |
| 231d |  PVMME | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,322 | −$63 −4.8% | — |
| 231d | chillchillandmorechill | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,007 | −$47 −4.7% | — |
| 238d |  PaddyAlpha | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $3,279 | −$169 −5.2% | — |
| 239d | 12100K | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,884 | −$95 −5.0% | — |
| 241d | kgg001 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $2,392 | +$129 +5.4% | 4 |
| 242d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly6 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 99¢ | $20,977 | −$1,269 −6.0% | — |
| 246d | Kfkdkkfjfjekfkgjjrjff2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 99¢ | $45,136 | −$2,735 −6.1% | — |
| 250d |  Belgaron | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,001 | −$38 −3.8% | — |
| 253d | Kfkdkkfjfjekfkgjjrjff6 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $47,286 | +$1,574 +3.3% | 4 |
| 253d |  LaiChing-te | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,658 | −$91 −5.5% | — |
| 258d |  gopfan24 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $15,839 | −$776 −4.9% | — |
| 260d | Dar1us | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,371 | +$63 +4.6% | 4 |
| 262d | 453534534 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,111 | +$58 +5.3% | 4 |
| 267d |  NotMasterFan | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,043 | −$50 −4.8% | — |
| 280d | derekac | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,307 | +$54 +4.1% | 4 |
| 281d | hodlor | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $11,376 | +$446 +3.9% | 4 |
| 282d | mmmbop2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $4,081 | −$176 −4.3% | — |
| 285d |  Galthran2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $2,233 | −$97 −4.3% | — |
| 286d |  acc-5 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,110 | +$52 +4.7% | 4 |
| 286d |  NotOver2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $3,801 | +$157 +4.1% | 4 |
| 287d | Zilivanili | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellYes5¢ → 1¢ | $1,154 | +$892 +77% | — |
| 288d | BlindGibbon | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,797 | +$74 +4.1% | 4 |
| 296d | 67wigger | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyYes6¢ → 1¢ | $2,000 | −$1,653 −83% | 9 |
| 297d |  tourists | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,303 | +$60 +4.6% | 4 |
| 301d | PaddyAlpha2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $2,655 | +$96 +3.6% | 4 |
| 302d | Zilivanili | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyYes7¢ → 1¢ | $1,200 | −$1,023 −85% | 5 |
| 306d |  dumbestdollars | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,053 | +$36 +3.4% | 4 |
| 309d |  tomatosauce2 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,094 | −$37 −3.4% | — |
| 310d |  Car2 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $10,052 | +$384 +3.8% | 4 |
| 312d | CrazyBang | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $5,111 | +$185 +3.6% | 4 |
| 312d | gopfan22 fills | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $9,525 | +$370 +3.9% | 4 |
| 312d | ZOVENJOYER | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,900 | +$79 +4.2% | 4 |
| 312d | moscow-professor | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $2,820 | +$149 +5.3% | 4 |
| 312d | tomatosauce2 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $3,901 | +$217 +5.6% | 4 |
| 312d | i2dt | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $2,092 | +$115 +5.5% | 4 |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0414,096 sharesVegemiteLover3,169 shares
Gr33d2,500 sharesgopfan22,209 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 1¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 1%.