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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 7% | — | −4 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 256d |
| December 31, 2026 | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d |  DEGENKHAN | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo92¢ → 94¢ | $1,965 | +$32 +1.6% | 4 |
| 4d | DEGENKHAN | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo98¢ → 99¢ | $1,057 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 6d |  tetrase2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $5,708 | +$145 +2.5% | 4 |
| 18d |  0xwordjnn | June 30, 2027 | SellNo91¢ → 94¢ | $5,629 | −$155 −2.7% | — |
| 18d | tetrase | June 30, 2027 | BuyYes8¢ → 7¢ | $1,756 | −$265 −15% | 8 |
| 23d | mikekb | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo94¢ | $1,000 | −$5 −0.5% | 4 |
| 25d | sdhyky | June 30, 2027 | SellYes7¢ | $2,092 | +$142 +6.8% | — |
| 25d | tetrase2 fills | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo92¢ → 94¢ | $37,949 | +$771 +2.0% | 4 |
| 28d | h038596027355 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,213 | +$32 +2.7% | 4 |
| 28d | h038596027355 | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo88¢ → 94¢ | $1,525 | +$95 +6.3% | 4 |
0x848282837738291,714 shares
Digital-Boy971 shares
Anjun444 sharesDEGENKHAN2,277 shares
yen4u384 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 7¢ for June 30, 2027 means the market gives it about 7%.