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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6% | — | — | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72d | Daviddu08132 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 94¢ | $6,000 | +$114 +1.9% | 20 |
| 72d | ANGGGuess | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 94¢ | $1,812 | +$81 +4.4% | 20 |
| 180d |  Hamapo | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo89¢ → 94¢ | $1,505 | +$90 +6.0% | 20 |
| 258d | jayhawkjeff | December 31, 2026 | SellNo82¢ → 94¢ | $1,064 | −$156 −15% | — |
| 262d | marsilius | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo83¢ → 94¢ | $1,139 | +$151 +13% | 20 |
| 289d |  Noooooooop | China x India military clash by December 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,502 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 473d | Wonfo | China x India military clash by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,215 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 473d | Wonfo | China x India military clash by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,415 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | xcnstrategy | China x India military clash by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,245 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 525d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | China x India military clash by December 31? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$150 −15% | — |
| 561d |  allenzzz2 fills | China x India military clash by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,619 | +$92 +3.5% | 20 |
| 566d | xcnstrategy | China x India military clash by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$63 +5.3% | 20 |
PaddyAlpha4,103 shares
LlamaLoco00002,725 shares
StarMaster500 sharesThis is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 6%.