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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25 bps decrease | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Increase | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401d | Plaster | 50+ bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $4,895 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 401d | wokerjoesleeper | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $6,214 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 401d | lordedward | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $2,452 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 401d | pisch88 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,687 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 401d |  noreasapa | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,337 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | noreasapa | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,793 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | wokerjoesleeper | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,144 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 401d |  betwick2 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,990 | +$96 +1.6% | 20 |
| 401d | pkoshkin | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,453 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | OLOTH | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 401d | cigarettes2 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,420 | +$48 +0.4% | 20 |
| 401d | aviato | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,915 | +$36 +0.3% | 20 |
| 401d | KunoGreiner | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,461 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 401d | Occasionalbettor | No change | BuyYes100¢ | $2,903 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 401d | cigarettes7 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,502 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | Abdoulay | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,977 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d |  brodiaga | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,857 | +$73 +1.1% | 20 |
| 401d |  Cookedtan3 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,333 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | Cookedtan2 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,677 | +$67 +1.4% | 20 |
| 401d | brodiaga | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,525 | +$80 +1.2% | 20 |
| 401d | aureli11 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,560 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | cigarettes4 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,608 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | IBT | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,661 | +$32 +1.2% | 20 |
| 402d | wroclaw | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$14 +1.3% | 20 |
| 402d | Plaster2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $72,080 | +$72 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | bleble | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,689 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | Emocje | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,509 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | lordedward | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$25 +2.4% | 21 |
| 402d | QMG-CORE | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,958 | +$52 +1.8% | 20 |
| 402d |  UwO | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,818 | +$93 +1.1% | 20 |
| 402d | aureli6 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,293 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 403d | Bukaj0889 | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$58 +1.5% | 20 |
| 403d | kataloniaa | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,238 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 403d | uuuuu3 | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,933 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 403d | PaulCrown | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,493 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 404d |  Kim-Jong-Un | No change | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,217 | −$38 −3.1% | — |
| 404d | Szpaku | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,838 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 404d | Coldwater | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,549 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 406d | FromToday | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $19,316 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 406d | Pop200 | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,400 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 406d | Eliwra | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,231 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | FromToday | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,107 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | nonkenny902 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,659 | +$52 +2.0% | 20 |
| 407d | Bukaj3 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,000 | +$296 +2.3% | 20 |
| 407d | CSI | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,039 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 407d | MariaLo | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,376 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | jahjah | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,400 | +$49 +0.1% | 20 |
| 408d | Destilated | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,312 | +$51 +0.1% | 20 |
| 408d | Destilated | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,100 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 408d | MontyAplaca | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $5,113 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 408d | MontyAplaca | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,118 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 409d | 0x367f…0545 | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,900 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 409d | Hashbrown | No change | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | −$29 −2.0% | — |
| 409d | Mijdel | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,000 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 409d | aureli | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 409d | bingobangobongo3 fills | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $21,522 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 410d | FromToday | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,000 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 410d | toobit | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,567 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 410d | Olbrzymidzie | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $42,358 | +$96 +0.2% | 20 |
| 411d | bingobangobongo | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,509 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
CarsNEMESIS1.1,000 shares
AmericaFrist755 sharesThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) September 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its September 11, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the September 11, 2025 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by October 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No change means the market gives it about 100%.