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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +40 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −15 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −13 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59d | 0xa67b…af43 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 60d | niceShare | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,080 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 60d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,747 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | thanksmom | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,234 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | beatyesterday5 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,107 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,025 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d |  Espagan | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,015 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 60d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,113 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | anon.1980.123 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,052 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 60d | Jackybrown | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,875 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 60d | patouossa | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,997 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 60d | startrader | 160-179 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,894 | +$613 +16% | 25 |
| 60d | sazzaa | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,518 | +$32 +0.3% | 20 |
| 60d |  LinaBell🦊 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,593 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | pupupuup2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,234 | +$544 +13% | 23 |
| 60d | dafei8882 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,481 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | beatyesterday6 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,092 | +$50 +0.2% | 20 |
| 60d | anon.1980.123 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,658 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 60d |  jesterthegoose | 140-159 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,785 | +$722 +40% | 30 |
| 60d | jesterthegoose | 160-179 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | +$275 +22% | 26 |
| 60d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 140-159 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | −$270 −18% | — |
| 60d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,865 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 60d | anon.1980.1235 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,319 | +$117 +1.4% | 20 |
| 60d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,049 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 60d | Jasonzz | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$25 +1.1% | 20 |
| 60d |  Spotless-Godfather | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 60d | suifeng668 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,078 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | nbjui12 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,005 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 60d |  hctcapital | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 60d | thanksmom2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,824 | +$55 +0.9% | 20 |
| 60d |  Boss7 | 140-159 | SellNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$818 −78% | — |
| 60d | Candid-Wiring | 140-159 | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $3,513 | −$3,513 −100% | 32 |
| 60d | pingfan666 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,823 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 60d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$20 +1.9% | 20 |
| 60d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 60d | EMbrace | 140-159 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,723 | +$626 +36% | 27 |
| 60d |  upont | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,518 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 60d | ChoiceMeteor2520 | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,341 | +$59 +4.4% | 21 |
| 60d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,070 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 60d | onekey02 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,411 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d |  dz1ft | 140-159 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | +$317 +23% | 25 |
| 60d | Boss7 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,808 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 60d |  stauffen | 180-199 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,280 | +$504 +22% | 25 |
| 61d | dddtrips | 160-179 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,673 | +$1,106 +66% | 25 |
| 61d | 0x1d94…80da | 140-159 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,447 | −$303 −21% | — |
| 61d |  Mei-ji | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,084 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 61d | upont | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,949 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 61d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,871 | +$47 +0.4% | 20 |
| 61d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,852 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 61d | anon.1980.123 | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,868 | +$46 +2.5% | 20 |
| 61d | upont | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,451 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 61d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$176 +2.5% | 20 |
| 61d | hctcapital | 200-219 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | −$39 −3.8% | — |
| 61d | Boss7 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,189 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 61d | anon.1980.123 | 140-159 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,756 | +$300 +8.0% | 21 |
| 61d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 140-159 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$160 +8.7% | 21 |
| 61d | YogiKimochi | 140-159 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | −$108 −10% | — |
| 61d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | +$72 +6.4% | 21 |
| 61d | dafei888 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,413 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 61d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,341 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
dz1ft2,120 shares
BigMackyG831 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.