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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +100 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −60 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59d | sazzaa2 fills | 90-114 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $2,524 | −$1,762 −70% | — |
| 59d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,077 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | Jackybrown | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,367 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 59d |  AlmostRich | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,075 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | YuzuLemon | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,344 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,920 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 59d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,104 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 59d |  LinaBell🦊 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 59d | AlmostRich | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$79 +2.0% | 21 |
| 59d |  Gustav4 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 59d | patouossa | 90-114 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,223 | −$227 −10% | — |
| 59d | ym-mzt1 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,136 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 59d |  lolboy4D2 fills | 90-114 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,301 | −$547 −17% | — |
| 59d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,867 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,608 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 59d |  y111m11 | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | +$38 +1.5% | 21 |
| 59d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,050 | +$29 +1.4% | 20 |
| 59d | Jackybrown | 90-114 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$101 +7.5% | 22 |
| 59d | EMbrace | 65-89 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$250 +22% | 26 |
| 59d |  PredictionYogi | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,065 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 90-114 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | −$309 −27% | — |
| 59d |  hctcapital | 90-114 | SellNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,664 | +$1,664 +100% | — |
| 59d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,616 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | AnonymousPerson | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $1,069 | −$1,069 −100% | 20 |
| 59d |  FFIE. | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 0¢ | $1,532 | −$1,532 −100% | 21 |
| 59d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 0¢ | $1,097 | −$1,097 −100% | 21 |
| 59d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | SellNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,093 | +$1,093 +100% | — |
| 59d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,419 | −$1,419 −100% | 20 |
| 59d | Jackybrown | 65-89 | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 24 |
| 59d | pupupuup | 65-89 | BuyYes92¢ → 0¢ | $1,781 | −$1,781 −100% | 22 |
| 59d | sazzaa | 40-64 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,569 | +$128 +8.1% | 22 |
| 59d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | +$339 +21% | 25 |
| 59d | startrader | 40-64 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$157 +15% | 24 |
| 59d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | SellNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,565 | +$1,565 +100% | — |
| 59d | dafei888 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,298 | −$1,298 −100% | 21 |
| 59d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,253 | +$366 +16% | 24 |
| 59d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,264 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 59d | sazzaa | 40-64 | SellYes78¢ → 0¢ | $1,049 | +$1,049 +100% | — |
| 59d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ → 0¢ | $1,107 | −$1,107 −100% | 20 |
| 59d | hctcapital | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 59d | ihrekunst | 40-64 | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $2,406 | −$2,406 −100% | 25 |
| 59d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,525 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 59d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $2,848 | −$2,848 −100% | 20 |
| 59d | carboyant | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,550 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 59d | patouossa | 40-64 | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,656 | −$1,656 −100% | 25 |
| 59d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | +$246 +12% | 23 |
| 59d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,661 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 60d | ppobb1123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,924 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,708 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,066 | +$184 +2.3% | 20 |
| 60d | dafei888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,298 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 60d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,066 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 60d | Adorable-Initial | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$179 +7.2% | 21 |
| 61d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,149 | −$1,149 −100% | 25 |
MartinPNZ5,300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.