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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +41 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −36 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,555 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 54d |  stauffen | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,380 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 54d | Classic-Loggia | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,679 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 54d |  LinaBell🦊 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,859 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,432 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | sazzaa | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 54d | dafei888 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,497 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | suifeng6682 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,595 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 54d | pingfan666 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,961 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 54d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,502 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 54d | Happy-Tofu | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 54d | Amir10001 | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | −$13 −0.9% | — |
| 54d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,967 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 54d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 21 |
| 54d | dddtrips | 40-64 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | −$47 −2.4% | — |
| 54d | Bankrupt-Loser | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,817 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | 0x212d…64c6 | 65-89 | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $3,488 | −$1,506 −43% | — |
| 54d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 54d | 0xb9f7…08de | 65-89 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $3,163 | −$988 −31% | — |
| 54d | Jackybrown | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,105 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 54d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 54d | sazzaa | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,297 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 54d | LinaBell🦊 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,647 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | pupupuup2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $4,902 | +$667 +14% | 23 |
| 54d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,751 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 54d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,094 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | karen2p | <40 | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,482 | −$434 −29% | — |
| 54d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | +$26 +1.7% | 21 |
| 54d | mamai | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,170 | +$88 +2.1% | 21 |
| 54d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,296 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 54d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,914 | +$86 +2.2% | 21 |
| 54d |  LinabellAccountStolen2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,525 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,588 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 54d | karen2p | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$95 +1.9% | 20 |
| 54d | Amir10001 | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$124 +4.1% | 21 |
| 54d | Amir10001 | 40-64 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$219 +19% | 24 |
| 54d | Hexagon555 | <40 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | −$55 −5.3% | — |
| 54d | ChoiceMeteor2520 | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,483 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 54d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,923 | +$188 +2.7% | 20 |
| 54d | Solitude26 | 40-64 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,118 | −$551 −49% | — |
| 54d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,330 | +$71 +3.1% | 21 |
| 54d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,212 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | 0x1d94…80da | 65-89 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$243 −20% | — |
| 54d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,909 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 55d | upont | 165-189 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,772 | −$29 −1.0% | — |
| 55d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,941 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 55d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,529 | +$102 +2.2% | 20 |
| 55d | BinaryBaron | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,438 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d | BinaryBaron | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,917 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,964 | +$36 +0.9% | 20 |
| 55d | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,795 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 55d | dddtrips2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $2,694 | +$3,178 +118% | 26 |
| 55d | dddtrips | 65-89 | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,047 | −$1,047 −100% | 25 |
| 56d | stauffen | 90-114 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$221 +19% | 23 |
BigMackyG1,276 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.