Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +80 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −60 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51d | Repulsive-Member | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,630 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 51d | RootWoot | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,142 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 51d |  stauffen | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,241 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 51d |  LinaBell🦊 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,406 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 51d |  Rocklee05 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,094 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 51d | LinaBell🦊 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,719 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 51d | ym-mzt1 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,417 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 51d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,514 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 51d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | −$17 −1.5% | — |
| 51d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 51d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,207 | +$147 +2.0% | 21 |
| 51d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,676 | +$79 +2.2% | 21 |
| 51d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,287 | +$71 +3.1% | 21 |
| 51d | RootWoot | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,600 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 52d | dafei888 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,721 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 52d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$202 +19% | 25 |
| 52d | stauffen | 40-64 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$373 +26% | 27 |
| 52d | stauffen | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 52d |  guandaBaoFu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 52d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | +$629 +38% | 29 |
| 52d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 52d | sazzaa | 65-89 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | +$1,050 +100% | — |
| 52d | RootWoot | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$32 +2.5% | 21 |
| 52d |  upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,866 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 52d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,196 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 52d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,577 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 52d | Repulsive-Member | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$133 +5.3% | 21 |
| 52d | 0xf14e…6173 | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | +$79 +5.8% | 21 |
| 52d | stauffen | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | +$95 +7.0% | 22 |
| 52d | carboyant | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,064 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 52d | xiaojido202 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,638 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 52d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 52d |  Mei-ji | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,561 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 52d | upont | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 53d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,853 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | wwv | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,048 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 53d |  Babydogfight | 115-139 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | −$37 −3.1% | — |
| 53d | Solitude26 | 65-89 | BuyYes48¢ → 0¢ | $1,211 | −$1,211 −100% | 25 |
| 54d | CakeBake | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | Solitude26 | 40-64 | BuyYes42¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$1,392 +136% | 25 |
dz1ft22,980 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.