Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +29 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −8 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −16 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,893 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 45d |  frandoes | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,502 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 45d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,043 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,363 | +$39 +0.3% | 20 |
| 45d | beatyesterday5 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,746 | +$116 +0.7% | 20 |
| 45d |  Bot4 | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,604 | +$28 +0.6% | 20 |
| 45d | Jackybrown | 160-179 | SellYes100¢ | $1,030 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 45d | beatyesterday8 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,966 | +$126 +0.4% | 20 |
| 45d |  upont | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 45d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,799 | +$28 +0.7% | 20 |
| 45d | upont | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,964 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 45d |  stauffen | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,857 | −$50 −1.3% | — |
| 45d | 9figures2026 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,006 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 45d |  TweetPulse.Live | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,992 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 46d | dddtrips | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,011 | −$26 −0.9% | — |
| 46d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,880 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 46d |  AlmostRich | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,911 | +$105 +2.1% | 21 |
| 46d | karen2p2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,539 | +$285 +8.0% | 22 |
| 46d | sazzaa | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,460 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 46d | Bankrupt-Loser | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,949 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 46d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,036 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 46d | arbandy2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,706 | +$215 +8.0% | 22 |
| 46d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 160-179 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$105 +7.5% | 22 |
| 46d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 180-199 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | −$41 −3.3% | — |
| 46d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$20 +1.5% | 21 |
| 46d | barell | 160-179 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,342 | +$274 +20% | 26 |
| 46d |  Boss7 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,574 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 46d | ppyiago2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,071 | +$56 +1.8% | 21 |
| 46d |  y111m11 | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,863 | +$34 +1.8% | 21 |
| 46d | Candid-Wiring | 140-159 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,181 | −$619 −28% | — |
| 46d | 0x212d…64c6 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 46d |  leleko2k | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,858 | +$36 +1.9% | 21 |
| 46d | ellio8989 | 160-179 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | −$541 −28% | — |
| 46d | dddtrips | 160-179 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$292 +29% | 26 |
| 46d | lannnn | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$19 +1.7% | 20 |
| 46d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$42 +2.1% | 21 |
| 46d | Amir10001 | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$106 +2.1% | 21 |
| 46d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,824 | +$229 +8.1% | 22 |
| 46d | CakeBake2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,926 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 46d | Candid-Wiring | 140-159 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,268 | +$531 +23% | 25 |
| 46d | CakeBake | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 46d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,651 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 47d | carboyant2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,199 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 47d | Boss72 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,377 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 47d | rw-mehtape | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 47d | logesh32 | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,220 | +$280 +8.7% | 21 |
| 47d | bipbipbop | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 47d | monastyr | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,298 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 47d | CakeBake | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,218 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d | Marsache | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$128 +6.4% | 21 |
| 48d |  BigMackyG | 160-179 | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,661 | −$1,661 −100% | 25 |
| 48d | bipbipbop | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 48d |  Mei-ji | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,612 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d | BinaryBaron | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,263 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 48d | stauffen | 180-199 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $3,350 | +$556 +17% | 22 |
| 48d | Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,733 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d | Mei-ji | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,566 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d | capofdodik | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,380 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d | monastyr | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,295 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | Boss72 fills | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,739 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft18,619 sharesBigMackyG4,172 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 25 12:00 PM ET to September 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.