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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +41 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48d |  stauffen | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,406 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 48d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,768 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 48d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,618 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 48d | RootWoot | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,262 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 48d | Shallow-Diadem | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,918 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 48d |  jesterthegoose | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,596 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d | jesterthegoose | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,145 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,654 | +$96 +1.7% | 21 |
| 48d | beatyesterday4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,995 | +$49 +0.6% | 20 |
| 48d | beatyesterday6 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,345 | +$191 +1.3% | 20 |
| 48d | carboyant2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,944 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 48d |  Gustav4 | 65-89 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,224 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 49d | ym-mzt1 | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,474 | +$61 +4.2% | 21 |
| 49d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,822 | +$118 +4.2% | 21 |
| 49d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,660 | +$111 +4.2% | 21 |
| 49d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,550 | +$70 +4.5% | 21 |
| 49d | dddtrips | 40-64 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | −$76 −6.2% | — |
| 49d | sazzaa | 40-64 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$46 −4.4% | — |
| 49d | CakeBake2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,402 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 49d | RootWoot | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$63 +5.3% | 21 |
| 49d | Bankrupt-Loser | 40-64 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$269 +19% | 24 |
| 49d | beatyesterday | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,771 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 49d |  Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$36 +3.1% | 21 |
| 49d | 0xf14e…6173 | <40 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$87 +7.6% | 22 |
| 49d | skoldor | <40 | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,037 | −$1,037 −100% | 28 |
| 49d | Bigggggggg | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,156 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | Bigggggggg | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | +$15 +1.3% | 20 |
| 49d | Bigggggggg | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$80 +7.4% | 22 |
| 49d | stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,070 | +$339 +11% | 22 |
| 50d | Candid-Wiring | <40 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$397 +26% | 23 |
dz1ft14,135 shares
BigMackyG3,738 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.