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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +35 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −31 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68d | Shallow-Diadem2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,724 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 68d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,356 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 68d |  upont3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,122 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 68d | Jackybrown | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,851 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 68d | GOTOPNO1 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,028 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 68d | KKTTFENG | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,557 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 68d | UIUQWPO | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,060 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 68d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,277 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 68d | upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,174 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 68d | patouossa | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,671 | −$13 −0.5% | — |
| 68d | EMbrace | <40 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 68d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,881 | +$120 +3.1% | 21 |
| 68d | karen2p | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,113 | +$139 +3.4% | 21 |
| 68d | startrader | <40 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,490 | +$510 +20% | 26 |
| 68d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,831 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 68d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,925 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 68d | patouossa | <40 | SellYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,035 | +$1,035 +100% | — |
| 68d | anon.1980.1234 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,079 | −$31 −0.3% | — |
| 68d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,235 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 68d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$21 +1.1% | 20 |
| 68d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,435 | +$71 +1.6% | 20 |
| 69d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,948 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 69d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,464 | +$100 +1.0% | 20 |
| 69d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,375 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 69d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | +$280 +16% | 22 |
| 69d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$466 +16% | 22 |
| 70d | patouossa | 40-64 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$1,320 +97% | 25 |
dz1ft12,858 shares
Lavincey2,346 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.