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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +45 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −4 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −33 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73d | Marsache | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,069 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 73d | Poiuztrewq | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,150 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 73d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,865 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 73d | 0x1d94…80da | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,075 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 73d |  PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,540 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 73d |  LinaBell🦊 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 73d | Bankrupt-Loser2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,190 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 73d |  XsiroX | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,074 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 73d | 0B06 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 73d |  dingdangcat | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,355 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 73d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,489 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 73d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,966 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 74d | yolol | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 74d | yolol | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 74d | Intelligent-Tax | 220-239 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,327 | +$72 +3.1% | 21 |
| 74d | AnonymousPerson | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,272 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | ym-mzt1 | 220-239 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$47 +4.2% | 21 |
| 74d | treh | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,239 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 74d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $27,184 | +$144 +0.5% | 20 |
| 74d | sazzaa | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,839 | +$48 +0.4% | 20 |
| 74d | Marsache | 220-239 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,899 | +$173 +9.1% | 23 |
| 74d | pupupuup | 220-239 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$554 +49% | 30 |
| 74d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$23 +1.5% | 20 |
| 74d | pingfan666 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,696 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | nbjui1 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,795 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | suifeng668 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,214 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | Amir10001 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,200 | +$76 +1.2% | 20 |
| 74d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,267 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 74d | BinaryBaron | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,602 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 74d | dddtrips | 220-239 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | −$954 −69% | — |
| 74d | Marsache4 fills | 260-279 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,635 | −$161 −2.9% | — |
| 74d | jnmytjnghv | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,033 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | vchygjhj | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,975 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | Damaged-Continuity | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,007 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 74d | 0x1d94…80da | 260-279 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,436 | −$92 −2.7% | — |
| 74d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,933 | +$300 +7.6% | 22 |
| 74d | johnnnnnnn | 260-279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 74d |  upont | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 74d | anon.1980.1236 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $16,315 | +$372 +2.3% | 20 |
| 74d | onekey02 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 74d | manuelarias | 200-219 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,602 | −$178 −11% | — |
| 74d |  stauffen | 240-259 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,624 | +$467 +29% | 26 |
| 74d | d008 | 260-279 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$44 +2.8% | 21 |
| 74d | carboyant | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,019 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d |  Boss7 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,251 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 74d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,451 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 74d | CakeBake | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,793 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 74d | upont3 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,545 | +$42 +0.8% | 20 |
| 74d | upont3 fills | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,558 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 74d | kosmichesky | 280-299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 75d | Marsache3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$772 +17% | 22 |
| 75d |  axelverse.sol | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 75d | ellio8989 | 220-239 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$1,137 +98% | 25 |
| 75d | CakeBake2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,585 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 75d | kosmichesky | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 75d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 75d | upont2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,470 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 75d |  PENIsO | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,420 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 75d | nbjui1 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,516 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
dz1ft1,100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 28 12:00 PM ET to August 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.