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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −54 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76d |  stauffen | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,468 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,275 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 76d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,805 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 76d |  Prexpect | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,728 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 76d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,790 | +$28 +1.6% | 21 |
| 76d | Konium | 65-89 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$36 +3.2% | 21 |
| 77d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,520 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 77d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,303 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 77d |  upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,963 | +$34 +0.3% | 20 |
| 77d |  BigMackyG | 65-89 | SellNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,217 | +$1,217 +100% | — |
| 77d | dddtrips | 90-114 | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,174 | −$1,174 −100% | 28 |
| 77d |  tend9 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,671 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 77d | venezuelain | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,824 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 77d |  KVBA7 | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,550 | +$101 +2.2% | 21 |
| 77d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | +$50 +2.9% | 21 |
| 77d | Adorable-Initial | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$61 +0.6% | 20 |
| 77d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,347 | +$101 +7.5% | 22 |
| 77d | stauffen | 90-114 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$123 +9.2% | 21 |
| 78d |  PENIsO | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,049 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 78d |  Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$15 +1.4% | 20 |
dz1ft9,390 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 30 12:00 PM ET to August 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.