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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34d |  stauffen | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,321 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 34d |  TweetPulse.Live | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,841 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 34d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,688 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,740 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 34d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,887 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 34d | Ashurnasirpal | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,990 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 34d |  Bot42 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,094 | +$38 +1.2% | 20 |
| 35d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,240 | +$34 +1.0% | 20 |
| 35d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | −$82 −4.9% | — |
| 35d | carboyant | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 35d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,066 | +$64 +1.3% | 20 |
| 35d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,440 | +$42 +1.2% | 20 |
| 35d |  leleko2k | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 35d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,703 | +$41 +1.5% | 20 |
| 35d | Jackybrown2 fills | <40 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,795 | −$55 −2.0% | — |
| 35d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,317 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | karen2p2 fills | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,842 | +$212 +4.4% | 21 |
| 35d | barell | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,637 | +$103 +3.9% | 21 |
| 35d | karen2p2 fills | <40 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,017 | −$82 −4.0% | — |
| 35d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,956 | +$189 +6.4% | 22 |
| 35d | venezuelain2 fills | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,861 | +$139 +1.4% | 20 |
| 35d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,244 | −$178 −5.5% | — |
| 35d | 0xf14e…6173 | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,626 | +$133 +8.2% | 22 |
| 35d | froku | 40-64 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,751 | +$370 +13% | 23 |
| 35d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,479 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 35d | stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$423 +22% | 23 |
| 38d | TweetPulse.Live | <40 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,535 | +$308 +20% | 21 |
| 39d |  BigMaccyG | 40-64 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,938 | −$1,938 −100% | 22 |
BigMaccyG3,563 shares
hochnaesigezicke158 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.