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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,383 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 18d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,294 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 18d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,090 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 18d |  Kurumi.chan | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,817 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 18d |  Bot4 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 18d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 18d |  funnybon | 40-64 | SellNo31¢ → 0¢ | $1,433 | +$1,433 +100% | — |
| 18d |  upont3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,897 | +$26 +0.2% | 20 |
| 18d | Kurumi.chan | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,482 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 19d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,159 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 19d | Kayakingzzz2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,055 | +$1,072 +52% | 28 |
| 19d |  BigMaccyG3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $4,178 | +$4,349 +104% | 28 |
| 19d | PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$21 +1.9% | 21 |
| 19d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | SellNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,215 | +$1,215 +100% | — |
| 19d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,264 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 19d | upont | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,858 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 19d | crashhbandii7 | 65-89 | SellYes23¢ → 0¢ | $1,482 | +$1,482 +100% | — |
| 19d | BigMaccyG | 65-89 | SellYes27¢ → 0¢ | $1,676 | +$1,676 +100% | — |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,169 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 19d | crashhbandii72 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $2,771 | −$2,771 −100% | 31 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | <40 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,175 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 19d |  0xPoni-Elon | 65-89 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,597 | +$424 +27% | 24 |
| 20d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,190 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 20d | DrunkenKraken | <40 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$149 +14% | 22 |
| 20d | phanish | <40 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,185 | +$350 +30% | 24 |
| 21d |  TweetPulse.Live | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,418 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
Kinganibus200 shares
ElonJail96 shares
karcharodon82 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 26 12:00 PM ET to September 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.