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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +32 pts | +82 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −9 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −32 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −61 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −17 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31d | 0xf14e…61733 fills | 200-219 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,148 | −$364 −7.1% | — |
| 31d | Poiuztrewq | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,096 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 31d |  Mei-ji2 fills | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,102 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 31d | Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,661 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 31d |  Prexpect | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,083 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 31d | onekey02 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,190 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 31d |  Bot4 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,013 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 31d | beatyesterday4 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,162 | +$75 +0.6% | 20 |
| 31d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,495 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 31d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 31d | KindBetter | 200-219 | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,095 | −$1,095 −100% | 30 |
| 32d |  y111m11 | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,853 | +$40 +2.2% | 21 |
| 32d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,260 | +$77 +2.4% | 21 |
| 32d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,760 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | Kkirito3 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,453 | +$402 +9.0% | 23 |
| 32d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,258 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 32d |  Archeroon | 180-199 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | +$136 +11% | 23 |
| 32d | 0xf14e…6173 | 180-199 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$142 +10% | 23 |
| 32d | CakeBake | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,071 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 32d | jabali-furioso | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,188 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 32d |  upont | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,342 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 32d | karen2p | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,230 | +$44 +1.4% | 20 |
| 32d | pupupuup | 180-199 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$161 +12% | 23 |
| 32d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,836 | +$164 +8.9% | 22 |
| 32d | 0xf14e…6173 | 160-179 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,698 | +$180 +11% | 23 |
| 32d | startrader | 160-179 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$232 +20% | 25 |
| 32d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,260 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 32d | RootWoot | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 32d | onekey022 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,783 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | upont | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,479 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 32d | carboyant | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,091 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 32d |  stauffen | 200-219 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$359 +15% | 23 |
| 32d | onekey02 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,076 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | upont2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,175 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 32d | RootWoot | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$26 +1.7% | 20 |
| 32d | dddtrips2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $3,003 | +$903 +30% | 24 |
| 33d | hollyhod | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,738 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | beatyesterday4 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,567 | +$70 +0.6% | 20 |
| 33d | 0xf14e…6173 | 140-159 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$105 +7.5% | 21 |
| 33d | froku | 140-159 | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $2,300 | −$2,300 −100% | 26 |
| 34d | bipbipbop | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,320 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 34d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,792 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 34d | clggzz | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,578 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 34d | carboyant | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,798 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 34d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,557 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 34d | CakeBake | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d | minutemans | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,076 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d | jinitaime | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,122 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d | hijaxk | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,012 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 34d | himmjj | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,046 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 34d | froku2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes38¢ → 0¢ | $2,058 | −$2,058 −100% | 24 |
| 34d | ellio8989 | 160-179 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 25 |
| 35d | CakeBake | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | CakeBake | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,566 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 35d | Icannotwin | 100-119 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 35d |  Boss7 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,836 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 80-99 | BuyNo100¢ | $4,975 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 36d | clggzz2 fills | 100-119 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,823 | +$77 +1.3% | 20 |
| 36d | hetacz | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | hollyhod | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,668 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
BigMackyG2,416 shares
iamom1,005 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.